Electric Vehicles in an Urban Context: Environmental Benefits and Techno-Economic Barriers

Perujo, Adolfo; Thiel, Christian; Nemry, Francoise · 2011 · Crossref

DOI: 10.5772/20760

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

Get this paper ↗ (DOI — opens at the source; we link to it, we don't host it)

Summary

This paper analyzes the potential role of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) in urban environments, evaluating their environmental benefits against techno-economic barriers. The study is motivated by the transport sector’s significant contribution to energy consumption (31% of final energy in the EU) and CO2 emissions (25%), alongside the health and economic costs associated with urban air pollution and traffic congestion. The authors aim to determine if EVs can serve as a viable solution for decarbonizing urban mobility and reducing local pollutants, while identifying the constraints hindering their widespread adoption. The analysis combines a review of technical specifications for available and projected EV models with scenario-based modeling of market penetration and cost structures. The authors utilize data from various sources, including manufacturer declarations and literature reviews, to characterize vehicle performance. Market penetration projections are derived from two primary studies: one focusing on the Milan metropolitan area using logistic trends calibrated on alternative fuel vehicle adoption, and another using the TREMOVE 3.1 model for the European Union, which accounts for battery technology progress and charging infrastructure access. Cost assessments employ Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) metrics, incorporating learning rates and economies of scale to forecast purchase prices and payback periods through 2030 under conservative and ambitious scenarios. The findings indicate that EVs offer substantial environmental advantages, particularly in reducing local air pollutants (NOx, PM10) and noise in urban areas. Regarding CO2, even with a carbon-intensive electricity mix, EVs can achieve 70–90% emission abatement compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, provided ICE efficiency improves according to EU targets. However, market penetration remains limited in the short term; BEV sales shares are projected to stay between 0.5% and 3% until 2020, constrained by battery costs and range limitations. PHEVs are expected to penetrate faster due to lower infrastructure dependencies. Techno-economically, high battery costs currently make EVs uncompetitive, with additional purchase costs exceeding €15,000 for BEVs. However, learning effects and economies of scale are projected to reduce battery costs to below €200/kWh by 2030, narrowing the price gap with conventional vehicles. Under high-volume scenarios, the payback period for EVs could drop below five years by 2030, driven by lower energy costs and rising oil prices. The paper concludes that while EVs are not a "silver bullet" for all transportation challenges, they are a critical component for sustainable urban mobility. Significant barriers remain, including high upfront costs, limited driving range, and the need for synchronized development of charging infrastructure and standardized interfaces. The authors recommend that policy makers support market uptake through incentives and infrastructure investment, while the industry must focus on reducing battery costs and improving durability. Success depends on a holistic approach combining technological advancements with non-technological strategies to address traffic congestion and ensure EVs meet safety and consumer familiarity standards.

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed.

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• traffic density