Estimating Cost of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran Using Willingness to Pay (WTP) Method

Ainy, Elaheh; Soori, Hamid; Ganjali, Mojtaba; Le, Henry; Baghfalaki, Taban · 2014 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112721

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Summary

This study addresses the significant economic burden of road traffic injuries in Iran, a low- and middle-income country where traffic accidents are the second-largest cause of death. Previous estimates in Iran relied on the human capital method, which the authors argue underestimates true costs by ignoring non-economic factors like quality of life and care costs. To provide a more accurate valuation, this research aimed to produce the first Willingness to Pay (WTP)-based estimate of traffic injury costs in Iran, proposing a model to inform policymaking and resource allocation. The researchers conducted a cross-sectional study involving 846 randomly selected road users in Tehran, stratified by user type (pedestrians, motorcyclists, vehicle occupants, and drivers) according to global road safety reports. Data were collected via face-to-face interviews using a questionnaire incorporating contingent value, stated preference, and revealed preference methods to assess WTP for fatality risk reduction. After excluding 64 participants with incorrect risk perception responses, 782 samples were analyzed. The study employed a Weibull regression model and maximum likelihood estimation to handle skewed data and zero WTP values, analyzing variables such as age, gender, income, vehicle type, and trip characteristics. The analysis revealed a mean WTP of 2,612,050 Iranian rials (IRR). Based on this, the statistical value of a life was estimated at approximately 19.7 billion IRR. The total estimated cost of 20,408 fatalities in 2013 was US$13.4 billion, while the cost of 318,802 non-fatal injuries was US$25.6 billion. Consequently, the total economic cost of traffic injuries and deaths in Iran for 2013 was calculated at US$39.0 billion. This figure represents 6.46% of Iran’s gross national income, a proportion significantly higher than the global average. WTP was found to be significantly associated with age, gender, monthly income, daily payment for risk reduction, payment for time reduction, trip mileage, and vehicle type, with bus drivers exhibiting the highest WTP and motorcyclists the lowest. The findings highlight that traffic injuries impose a massive economic strain on Iran, far exceeding previous estimates derived from human capital approaches. The study concludes that the high cost relative to national income underscores the urgent need for effective traffic safety interventions. By demonstrating the substantial economic benefits of reducing traffic-related deaths and injuries, the authors argue that policymakers should prioritize resource allocation toward injury prevention strategies. This research provides a validated WTP model for Iran and offers a methodological precedent for other low- and middle-income countries seeking to accurately quantify the societal costs of road traffic injuries.

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• incidence prevalence

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes