Analysis of factors influencing electric vehicle adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa using a modified UTAUT framework

Ajao, Qasim; Prio, Makhluk Hossain; Sadeeq, Lanre · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1007/s44291-025-00043-4

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Summary

This study investigates the factors influencing electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), addressing the discrepancy between optimistic sales projections and the region’s currently low adoption rates. Motivated by the need to align transportation with Sustainable Development Goal 7.2 and reduce carbon emissions, the research aims to identify key determinants of EV acceptance in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, Mauritius, and Seychelles. The authors extend the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) framework to account for region-specific challenges, incorporating constructs such as facilitating conditions, trust, performance expectancy, social influence, network externalities, and effort expectancy. The methodology involved a quantitative survey administered in autumn 2023 to a target sample of 1,000 individuals across SSA, including nationals living abroad. The final usable dataset comprised 850 respondents, predominantly male, with higher education levels and income brackets. The survey instrument, developed from prior literature and culturally adapted through back-translation, utilized a five-point Likert scale to measure perceptions of the six key constructs. Data were analyzed using SPSS for preliminary statistics and AMOS 20 for structural equation modeling and hypothesis testing. The researchers tested six hypotheses linking the constructs to behavioral intentions to adopt EVs, while controlling for multicollinearity and outliers. The empirical results highlight that facilitating conditions exert the strongest influence on behavioral intentions, demonstrating a 30% stronger effect than network externalities. This finding underscores the critical role of robust infrastructure, supportive government policies, and favorable operational environments in driving EV adoption. The study confirms that while factors such as trust, performance expectancy, and social influence are relevant, the availability of charging infrastructure, maintenance services, and policy incentives remains the primary barrier and driver for consumers in SSA. The modified UTAUT model effectively explained the variability in adoption intentions, validating the inclusion of trust and network externalities as significant predictors in this context. The significance of this research lies in its provision of data-driven insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders aiming to accelerate EV uptake in developing regions. By identifying facilitating conditions as the dominant factor, the study suggests that investments in infrastructure and regulatory support are more impactful than focusing solely on consumer education or social marketing. The findings offer a tailored framework for understanding technology adoption in SSA, distinguishing it from industrialized markets where different factors may prevail. The paper concludes by recommending future research to deepen the understanding of EV adoption dynamics, emphasizing the need for continued analysis of infrastructural and sociotechnical challenges unique to the region.

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