Review of methods for assessing traffic conditions on basic motorway and expressway sections

Romanowska, Aleksandra; Jamroz, Kazimierz; Olszewski, Piotr · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.0205

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

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Summary

This paper reviews and compares international methods for assessing traffic conditions on basic motorway and expressway sections, with the specific goal of determining their applicability to Polish road networks. The research was motivated by the rapid expansion of Poland’s motorway network and the inadequacy of the existing Polish guidelines, which were based on the 1985 US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and had remained unchanged since 1995. As traffic volumes, vehicle fleet composition, and network length have significantly increased, there is a critical need to update capacity estimation and traffic condition assessment tools to ensure road safety and efficiency. The study selected four distinct international methods for analysis: the US HCM, the German HBS, the Swedish SHCM, and the Dutch DHCM. The methodology comprised two phases: a theoretical comparison of the methods’ assumptions, procedures, and parameters, and an empirical validation using real-world data. The empirical data was collected from 30 survey sites on Polish motorways and expressways during the RID-2B project. Measurements were conducted using automatic number-plate recognition and MioVision Scout devices over a minimum of 24 hours, capturing vehicle speeds and counts aggregated into 15-minute intervals. The analysis excluded intervals with speeds below 80 km/h to focus on free-flow conditions. Goodness-of-fit measures, including Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), were used to evaluate the accuracy of speed estimates generated by each method against the empirical data. The results revealed significant discrepancies among the four methods regarding base capacities, traffic condition measures, and speed-flow models. For instance, base capacity values for a four-lane rural motorway varied widely, from 3,600 pc/h in Australia to 4,800 pc/h in the US. The empirical comparison demonstrated that none of the analyzed international methods accurately predicted traffic parameters for Polish roads when applied directly. The differences in estimated traffic conditions and speed values were substantial when compared to the observed data from Polish segments. The study concluded that direct adoption of any of the reviewed methods is unsuitable for Polish conditions due to these inherent differences in assumptions and local traffic characteristics. The significance of this research lies in its contribution to the development of a new, Poland-specific method for assessing traffic conditions on motorways and expressways. The findings highlight the necessity of incorporating Poland-specific factors, such as local speed limits and procedures for determining free-flow speed, into future guidelines. By identifying the limitations of existing international models, the paper provides a foundational basis for creating a tailored assessment tool that accurately reflects the operational realities of Poland’s growing high-standard road network.

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• speed choice