The Costs of “Vision Zero”. When Will Infrastructural Investments in Automated Mobility Pay Off?

Rodak, Aleksandra · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.7250/bjrbe.2025-20.667

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Summary

This study evaluates the economic feasibility of achieving the “Vision Zero” road safety strategy through the large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) infrastructure in Poland. Motivated by the persistent global burden of traffic fatalities and the identification of human error as the primary cause of accidents, the research aims to determine when infrastructural investments in automated mobility will yield financial returns by eliminating accident-related costs. The author compares the annual societal costs of human-error-induced crashes against the capital expenditures required for V2X communication, 5G networks, and high-definition (HD) mapping. The methodology involves a five-step process: literature review, cost estimation for infrastructure components, data aggregation, and comparative analysis. The study calculates the annual cost of road events caused by human error in Poland, which accounts for 91.2% of all accidents. Based on 2022 data, this figure is estimated at EUR 11.13 billion annually. To estimate infrastructure costs, the author models the number of intersections in Poland at approximately 1.9 million, derived from population density proxies. Using cost data from US implementations, the V2X deployment cost is calculated at EUR 73,800 per intersection, totaling EUR 140.1 billion. Additional costs include EUR 2 billion for 5G rollout and EUR 1.84 billion for HD mapping of Poland’s 420,000 km of public roads, resulting in a total estimated investment of EUR 143.94 billion. The primary finding indicates that under optimistic assumptions—specifically that AVs fully eliminate human error and require no additional road construction—the total infrastructure investment could be recouped in approximately 13 years through savings in accident costs. The analysis highlights that while physical infrastructure costs (signs, road surfaces) are excluded as they benefit all vehicles, the digital infrastructure required for AVs represents a massive upfront financial barrier. The study notes that current 5G coverage in Poland is insufficient for uninterrupted V2X communication, necessitating significant further investment. The significance of this research lies in providing a quantitative baseline for policymakers assessing the long-term value of AV implementation. While the 13-year payback period suggests potential economic viability, the author cautions that the model relies on simplified assumptions, ignoring transitional phases, maintenance costs, inflation, and the high cost of retrofitting individual vehicles. The study concludes that achieving Vision Zero requires not only technological innovation but also strategic policy planning and sustained financial commitment, with future research needed to refine estimates using dynamic adoption rates and mixed-traffic scenarios.

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