Transport and the Greenhouse Effect

Anne Annema, Jan Anne; Van Wee, Bert · 2011 · Crossref

DOI: 10.18757/ejtir.2000.0.1.3495

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Summary

This paper examines the role of research in shaping Dutch climate policy regarding transport sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. The Netherlands committed to a 6% reduction in GHG emissions by 2008–2012 compared to 1990 levels. With business-as-usual projections indicating a significant rise in transport emissions, policymakers launched a process to identify measures to meet this target. The study addresses three main questions: the role of research in this policy-making process, the resulting impact on the transport sector, and lessons for future policy development. The methodology involved a collaborative process between policymakers and researchers from the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and Utrecht University. Policymakers defined the policy task and selected a list of potential measures, which researchers then evaluated based on criteria such as emission reduction potential, costs, feasibility, and public support. This resulted in an "Option Document" and a subsequent "Policy Document." The evaluation utilized model calculations, expert judgment, and literature reviews to estimate the impact of specific instruments, including fuel levies, feebate systems, speed limit enforcement, and the promotion of in-car technologies like econometers. The findings reveal that the selected transport measures were heavily focused on passenger cars, driven by policymakers' preference for short-term feasibility rather than long-term technological innovation. While the Policy Document estimated a GHG reduction of 2.2–2.9 million tonnes by 2010, researchers calculated a more conservative "robust" estimate of 1.3–2.0 million tonnes, representing a 3–5% reduction compared to business-as-usual forecasts. This discrepancy arose because policymakers summed individual instrument effects, whereas researchers accounted for overlaps and behavioral limitations. Consequently, the transport sector was projected to contribute only 5–8% to the national domestic reduction target of 25 million tonnes, despite accounting for approximately 15% of total emissions. Tax differentiation for new cars and in-car instruments were identified as the most effective tools. The paper concludes that while the interaction between research and policy was generally effective, significant improvements are necessary. The authors criticize the narrow focus on car-related measures, which ignored potentially cost-effective options for other vehicle categories. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis was flawed due to a limited definition of costs that excluded societal impacts like loss of mobility or comfort. The authors recommend that future policy processes include a broader range of options, consider long-term impacts beyond the Kyoto timeframe, and employ comprehensive evaluation methods that incorporate environmental, economic, and social indicators to ensure optimal policy selection.

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