Simulation Study of the Effect of Decreasing Truck Traffic Flow on Safety on Almeria-Barcelona Corridor

Dadashova, Bahar · 2016 · Crossref

DOI: 10.4995/cit2016.2016.4214

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of reducing heavy-duty vehicle (truck) traffic on road safety along the Almeria-Barcelona corridor in Spain. The research is motivated by European and Spanish transport policies aiming to shift freight from road to rail to reduce emissions, energy consumption, and accident rates. Specifically, the study seeks to quantify how decreasing the average annual daily traffic (AADT) of trucks affects accident frequency, providing evidence to support modal shift strategies. The analysis utilizes 2010 accident data from 95 road segments totaling 714.36 km, classified as either dual carriageways (57 segments) or toll roads (38 segments). The authors employed a Negative Binomial regression model estimated via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation using WinBUGS software. The model incorporated predictors including total AADT, truck AADT, the percentage of trucks in total traffic, speed differences between passenger cars and heavy vehicles, rainfall, and road segment length. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with mean absolute error and mean squared error of 1.03% and 1.85%, respectively. Following model calibration, the researchers simulated 33 traffic scenarios involving 5%, 10%, and 15% reductions in truck traffic, combined with 0% to 10% increases in total traffic flow to account for induced demand. The results indicate that decreasing truck traffic generally improves road safety, though the magnitude varies by road type and scenario. On toll roads, accident reductions were consistent across all scenarios, averaging 1.2%, 2.8%, and 4.3% for 5%, 10%, and 15% truck reductions, respectively. On dual carriageways, the effect was more sensitive to induced traffic; a 5% truck reduction with increased total traffic slightly increased accidents, whereas 10% and 15% reductions yielded safety improvements. Globally, the scenarios resulted in total accident reductions of 0.3%, 1.6%, and 2.9%. The study confirms that while increasing total traffic volume tends to raise accident counts, the removal of trucks provides a net safety benefit, particularly on toll roads. The findings suggest that freight modal shift policies can effectively enhance road safety, validating the use of simulation tools for evaluating such strategies. The authors conclude that preventive measures accounting for road-type-specific performance are crucial for future safety policies, especially as economic recovery may increase heavy goods vehicle demand. The study supports the integration of safety assessments into decisions regarding the shift of freight from road to rail.

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes