Road traffic accidents, near-misses and their associated factors among commercial tricycle drivers in a Nigerian city

Balami, Ahmed Dahiru; Sambo, Garba · 2019 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.25082/he.2019.01.001

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Summary

This study addresses the lack of empirical data regarding road traffic accidents (RTAs) and near-misses among commercial tricycle drivers in Maiduguri, Nigeria. Tricycles became a critical intra-city transport mode following a 2011 ban on motorcycles, yet no prior research had assessed accident prevalence or associated risk factors for this specific group. The research aimed to determine the prevalence of accidents and near-misses and identify associated socio-demographic, vehicular, driver, and environmental factors to inform evidence-based safety interventions. The researchers conducted a cross-sectional study involving 300 registered commercial tricycle drivers in Maiduguri who had been operating for at least one year. Participants were recruited using multi-stage random sampling across five wards. Data were collected via face-to-face interviews using a validated bilingual questionnaire covering socio-demographics, physiological factors, driver behavior, vehicular conditions, and environmental factors. Statistical analysis included bivariate chi-squared tests and multivariate logistic regression to identify significant predictors of accident occurrence. The results indicated a high prevalence of safety incidents, with 46% of drivers reporting at least one road traffic accident and 50.3% reporting a near-miss in the previous year. Near-misses predominantly occurred under unfavorable conditions, including poor weather (63.6%), rough or congested roads, and while the driver was using a phone (45.7%) or feeling sleepy. Only 3.9% of near-misses occurred under ideal conditions (clear weather, smooth roads, fully awake). Bivariate analysis identified psycho-active substance use and experiencing more than one near-miss as significantly associated with accidents. However, multivariate analysis revealed that having experienced more than one near-miss was the sole independent predictor of having an accident, with an odds ratio of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.64–5.09). The statistical model explained approximately 9.8% of the variance in accident occurrence. The study concludes that commercial tricycle drivers in Maiduguri face a substantial burden of accidents and near-misses, driven largely by behavioral and environmental risks. The strong predictive power of near-misses suggests they serve as critical indicators of future accident risk. The authors recommend that regulatory bodies, such as the Federal Road Safety Commission, implement targeted awareness campaigns, driver training workshops, and stricter vehicle screening protocols. Further intervention studies are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures in reducing accident rates. The findings highlight the need for a shift from disaster management to disaster risk reduction, emphasizing the importance of addressing near-misses as precursors to severe crashes.

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• incidence prevalence

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes