Cost estimates for selected California smart traveler operation tests. Volume 1, technical report

Behnke, Robert W. · 1993 · ROSA P / United States. Federal Transit Administration. Advanced Public Transportation Systems Division

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Summary

This 1993 technical report, prepared for the Federal Transit Administration, addresses the rising costs and declining effectiveness of conventional public transit in the United States, particularly in suburban areas. The research is motivated by the observation that despite billions in subsidies, transit’s share of commuting trips has steadily declined, while traffic congestion, air pollution, and mobility problems have worsened. The report argues that expanding fixed-route bus and rail services in low-density suburban areas is prohibitively expensive and inefficient due to low ridership and high per-passenger costs. Instead, it proposes "California Smart Traveler" systems—telephone-based Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) and Advanced Public Transportation Systems (APTS)—as a cost-effective alternative to manage transportation resources and reduce single-occupant vehicle use. The study provides cost estimates for conducting operational tests of these Smart Traveler concepts in three California locations: San Ramon/Pleasanton/Livermore, UCLA/Westwood, and San Diego’s North City area. These estimates were derived largely from data on similar systems in Germany and through consultations with German and Australian transit experts involved in a "smart-bus" test in New South Wales. The report also analyzes historical data on transit ridership, costs, and congestion indices to compare the economic viability of Smart Traveler approaches against traditional transit expansion. It highlights that Americans spend significantly more on automobiles than on telecommunications, suggesting a massive market opportunity for information-based transportation services. Key findings indicate that conventional transit has become increasingly unproductive, with costs per passenger trip rising 180% and subsidies rising 120% in real terms between 1965 and 1988. Transit’s share of work trips dropped from 24.6% in 1960 to approximately 7% in 1990, exacerbated by the shift of jobs and residences to suburbs where less than 2% of commutes are made by public transport. In contrast, the report asserts that Smart Traveler systems, which integrate flexible-route vehicles like single-trip carpools ("parataxis") with fixed-route transit, could reduce single-occupant automobile use by 20% and congestion delays by 50% without major increases in government subsidies. Market research suggests millions of Americans would pay for such information services, which could also generate revenue through advertising and value-added services. The significance of this report lies in its conclusion that the United States cannot solve its transportation problems through infrastructure expansion or conventional transit subsidies alone. It positions telephone-based information systems as a critical tool for managing existing transportation resources efficiently. The report frames Smart Traveler systems not only as a solution to congestion and pollution but also as a substantial business opportunity for private sector providers, potentially doubling telephone industry revenues. It recommends that corporations and government agencies collaborate to test and implement these technologies, viewing them as an "anchor" application to stimulate the growth of the broader videotex and information services industry.

Key finding

Cost estimates for Smart Traveler operational tests were based on data from German and Australian transit experts and compared against the rising costs of conventional transit expansion.

Methodology

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Provenance

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