COVID-19 related travel restrictions prevented numerous wildlife deaths on roads: A comparative analysis of results from 11 countries

Bíl, Michal; Andrášik, Richard; Cícha, Vojtěch; Arnon, Amir; Kruuse, Maris; Langbein, Jochen; Náhlik, András; Niemi, Milla; Pokorny, Boštjan; Colino-Rabanal, Víctor J.; Rolandsen, Christer M.; Seiler, Andreas · 2021 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109076

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19-related travel restrictions (CRTR) on wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC) across 11 countries: Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Israel, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and England and Scotland within the United Kingdom. Motivated by the global reduction in road traffic during the spring 2020 lockdowns, the authors sought to quantify how decreased human mobility affected wildlife mortality. The research addresses the broader issue of roadkill as a major source of anthropogenic wildlife death, particularly for large mammals like ungulates, and utilizes the "Anthropause" as a natural experiment to assess the relationship between traffic volume and collision rates. The researchers analyzed WVC data recorded between 2015 and 2020, totaling over 645,000 carcass records. Data sources varied by country, including police crash reports, carcass removal records, and reports from hunters or wildlife managers. To determine the effect of the lockdown, the authors used a seasonal ARIMA model based on 2015–2019 time series to predict expected weekly WVC numbers for 2020 under normal traffic conditions. These predicted values were compared to actual reported WVC during the CRTR period (weeks 11–26 of 2020). The analysis calculated rate ratios to measure the percentage reduction in collisions, while traffic flow data served as a descriptive indicator of restriction intensity rather than a direct variable in the statistical model. The results indicate that WVC decreased significantly in seven of the eleven countries during the CRTR period. The overall reduction across these seven countries was 18.9%, corresponding to approximately 4,069 fewer large mammal deaths than expected. The magnitude of reduction varied by country and lockdown strictness. Estonia experienced the most significant overall decrease at 37.4%, while Sweden, which had less intensive state-wide restrictions, showed no significant change. During the initial weeks of the lockdown, Estonia, Spain, Israel, and Czechia saw WVC reductions exceeding 40%. In contrast, no statistically significant difference was found in Sweden, Israel, Scotland, and England over the entire period, though Israel showed significant drops in the first weeks. The study notes that variations in results may be influenced by differences in lockdown duration, traffic recovery rates, and seasonal peaks in animal activity. The findings demonstrate that even short-term reductions in traffic volume can significantly lower wildlife mortality, highlighting the negative impact of roads on conservation. The authors conclude that the CRTR allowed numerous wild animals to survive that would likely have been killed under normal conditions. This underscores the need for systematic gathering of roadkill data and global efforts to mitigate WVC through traffic management and infrastructure improvements. The study also acknowledges limitations, such as the exclusion of confounding factors like weather and snow cover, and the reliance on reporting systems that may underreport smaller species, though the focus on relative ratios mitigates some bias from underreporting.

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• comparative international