The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents on different types of Spanish interurban roads

Ramírez, Blanca Arenas; Izquierdo, F. Aparicio; Fernández, C. González; Méndez, A. · 2008 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.07.016

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Summary

This study investigates the influence of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) traffic on accident frequencies across different types of interurban roads in Spain. Motivated by the significant increase in road freight transport and the associated rise in accidents involving HGVs, the research aims to quantify how traffic volume and composition affect safety. The analysis seeks to provide objective data for evaluating policies that encourage modal shifts from road to other transport modes and to enhance road safety. The researchers utilized police-reported accident data from 2001 for 2,541 road segments within the Spanish state network (RCE), categorized into toll motorways (AP), dual carriageways (AV), undivided dual carriageways (DC), and single carriageway roads (C). Traffic data, including annual average daily traffic (AADT) and the percentage of HGVs, were obtained from official traffic maps. The study employed negative binomial regression models to predict accident counts, accounting for overdispersion common in accident data. The model included covariates for traffic volume, HGV percentage, road type, and interaction terms between HGV percentage and road type. The model was validated by comparing predicted accidents against observed data for the Madrid-Barcelona corridor in 2002 and 2003. The results identified AADT as the most significant variable influencing accidents, followed by the percentage of HGVs. The analysis revealed distinct covariate patterns for different road types. While a reduction in HGVs generally decreased the total number of accidents, the impact varied by road infrastructure. On single carriageway roads, the negative effect of HGVs on safety was more pronounced. Conversely, on high-capacity roads (AP, AV, DC), the interaction terms indicated that the presence of HGVs had a different, often less detrimental or even slightly positive relative effect on accident rates compared to single carriageways, likely due to traffic flow separation and homogeneity. The model demonstrated good fit statistics and accurately reflected observed accident rates. The significance of this work lies in its application to policy evaluation. By simulating hypothetical scenarios of HGV reduction, the study found that while reducing HGVs lowers accident counts, the potential induction of other vehicular traffic can mitigate these safety benefits, particularly on single carriageway roads where exposure increases. The findings provide a quantitative basis for assessing the safety implications of freight transport policies and modal shift strategies, highlighting that road type is a critical factor in determining the safety impact of HGV traffic.

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• incidence prevalence

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes