FHWA Research and Technology Evaluation: Enhanced Prediction of Vehicle Fuel Economy and Other Vehicle Operating Costs

Bucci, Gregory; Chajka-Cadin, Lora; Friedman, Daniel · 2022 · ROSA P / United States. Federal Highway Administration. Office of Corporate Research, Technology, and Innovation Management

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Summary

This report evaluates the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) research project aimed at updating Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) models, which are critical inputs for the Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS). The existing VOC equations, based on 1982 data, had become outdated due to technological advancements in vehicle fleets and drivetrains. The research, conducted by a contractor from 2014 to 2021, sought to develop enhanced predictive models for fuel economy and nonfuel costs (oil consumption, tire wear, maintenance, and depreciation) that account for modern vehicle technologies and roadway characteristics like pavement roughness. Due to schedule delays that compressed the implementation period, the evaluation focused on short-term outcomes: early interest and application of the models, and internal stakeholder perceptions. The evaluation methodology involved analyzing outreach activity trackers, review reports, and conducting interviews with FHWA staff, U.S. Department of Transportation personnel, and contractors. The research contractor conducted extensive outreach between 2017 and 2020, including presentations at Transportation Research Board events, academic seminars, and industry meetings. These activities introduced the updated models to hundreds of public and private entities. The evaluation assessed the number and quality of these outreach efforts and gathered attitudinal responses from internal stakeholders regarding the models' quality and usefulness. Findings indicate significant early interest in the updated VOC models. Outreach efforts successfully engaged diverse stakeholders, including academia, government agencies, and private industry. Notably, a private building material manufacturer decided to integrate the VOC methodology into its pavement lifecycle assessment software, and a Transportation Research Board webinar attracted attendees from 155 sites, including 30 state departments of transportation. Internal stakeholders generally viewed the updated models as an improvement over current methods, citing their alignment with modern vehicle fleets and potential to enhance estimates in HERS and EPA models. However, reviewers identified specific technical concerns, such as abnormal fuel economy estimates at steep grades and issues with the complexity of vehicle depreciation outputs. While these issues were noted as areas for further revision, the overall feedback supported the hypothesis that the models offer increased value. The report concludes that while the updated VOC models show promise for improving transportation cost estimation, they require further vetting and testing before full integration into HERS. The evaluation highlights lessons learned regarding project management, recommending that future complex research projects establish clear expectations early, utilize logic models to map research activities to outcomes, and implement more engaged oversight methods. Additionally, the report advises that prospective evaluations should carefully assess schedule risks to ensure adequate time for assessing long-term impacts and adoption.

Key finding

The updated VOC models generated significant early interest from diverse stakeholders and were perceived as an improvement over existing methods, although specific equation outputs required revision to address identified anomalies.

Methodology

mixed_methods

Provenance

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