Scenario-based Assessment of Decarbonized Transport Sector in Thailand towards Carbon Neutrality 2050

LIMMEECHOKCHAI, Bundit; Lorm, Rathana · 2024 · Crossref

DOI: 10.56261/built.v22.256385

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Summary

This study assesses the potential for decarbonizing Thailand’s transport sector to achieve national carbon neutrality by 2050. The research is motivated by the sector’s status as a primary contributor to the country’s CO2 emissions, driven by rising transport demand and heavy reliance on high-carbon petroleum fuels. With Thailand committed to peaking emissions by 2025 and achieving neutrality by 2050, the authors aim to quantify the effectiveness of specific low-carbon technologies and policy interventions in meeting these targets. The researchers utilized the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model energy demand and CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2050. The methodology involved collecting historical data on vehicle registration, fuel economy, and transport demand, alongside projections for GDP, population, and income. Two scenarios were developed: a Baseline (BAS) scenario representing a business-as-usual approach with frozen technologies, and a Decarbonization (DEC) scenario incorporating multiple mitigation strategies. The DEC scenario included improving fuel economy efficiency, promoting electric vehicles (EVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and shifting toward mass transportation. Specific assumptions for the DEC scenario were derived from International Energy Agency (IEA) Net-Zero Emissions pathways, such as targeting 75% EV adoption for light-duty vehicles and 15% rail share for passenger transport by 2050. The results indicate that total energy demand in the transport sector will rise significantly to approximately 49,906 ktoe by 2050, with road transport accounting for 83.87% of consumption. Under the BAS scenario, total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 119,737 ktCO2eq by 2050. In contrast, the full implementation of countermeasures in the DEC scenario reduces total emissions to 30,582 ktCO2 by 2050. This substantial reduction demonstrates that the combination of fuel efficiency improvements, electrification, and modal shifts can align the transport sector with Thailand’s carbon neutrality pathways. The study concludes that while deep decarbonization is technically feasible through the adoption of low-carbon technologies, it requires a comprehensive nationwide transport action plan. The findings highlight the critical role of transitioning from petroleum-based fuels to electricity and hydrogen, as well as the importance of shifting passenger and freight demand toward more efficient modes like rail and mass transit. The research provides a quantitative framework for policymakers to evaluate the impact of specific technological interventions on national emission targets.

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