Commute mode choice dynamics: Accounting for day-to-day variability in longer term change

Chatterjee, Kiron; Clark, Ben; Bartle, Caroline · 2016 · Crossref

DOI: 10.18757/ejtir.2016.16.4.3167

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Summary

This paper addresses the need to understand long-term changes in commute mode choices by accounting for day-to-day variability, a factor often overlooked in previous research that assumes habitual, single-mode commuting. Motivated by evidence that a significant minority of commuters vary their transport modes within a single week, the study investigates how these weekly patterns evolve over time and what factors drive transitions between them. The research aims to provide transport policymakers with a more nuanced understanding of behavioral dynamics to better inform interventions promoting sustainable transport. The study utilizes data from the North Bristol Commuter Panel (NBCP), a longitudinal survey conducted between July 2014 and July 2015. The panel collected self-reported weekly commuting data from employees at 24 employers in two strategic employment areas in Bristol, where sustainable transport interventions were being implemented. Data was gathered at five waves, spaced three months apart. The analysis focused on the main mode of transport used each day of the work week, classifying commuters into three groups based on their weekly behavior: those who drove alone exclusively, those who partially drove alone (mixing driving with other modes), and those who did not drive alone at all. The researchers analyzed transitions between these groups over the twelve-month period and examined predictors of change, including socio-demographic characteristics, employment situational factors, access to mobility resources, satisfaction with commuting, awareness of transport measures, and changes in life circumstances. The results indicate that approximately 30% of commuters were multimodal, mixing driving alone with other modes in a typical week. This variability was more prevalent among males, individuals with access to a bicycle, and those who worked in different locations during the week, while being less common among part-time workers. Regarding longer-term dynamics, the study found that transitions in commute mode choices over three-month intervals were influenced by employment characteristics, resource access, commuting satisfaction, awareness of sustainable measures, and life events. Notably, the analysis of trajectories for participants who responded to all five waves revealed that sustained switches were more frequent between intermediate groups (e.g., from exclusive car use to partial car use) than between extreme groups (e.g., from exclusive car use to no car use). This suggests that behavioral change often occurs incrementally rather than through abrupt, complete mode switches. The significance of these findings lies in challenging the assumption that commuting is a rigidly habitual behavior. By demonstrating that day-to-day variability is common and that long-term changes often involve intermediate steps, the paper argues for a more dynamic approach to modeling commute behavior. The results imply that transport interventions may be more effective if they target the "partial" users or encourage incremental shifts in behavior, rather than expecting immediate, total abandonment of car use. This perspective offers a refined framework for evaluating the impact of sustainable transport policies and understanding the complex pathways of behavioral change in commuting.

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