Model of the structure of motor vehicles for the criterion of the technical level on account of pollutant emission

Chłopek, Zdzisław; Bebkiewicz, Katarzyna · 2017 · Crossref

DOI: 10.17531/ein.2017.4.2

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Summary

This paper addresses a critical challenge in environmental modeling: the lack of empirical data regarding the annual mileage of motor vehicles categorized by their specific technical and emission standards. While vehicle registration data allows for the quantification of fleet size, determining the intensity of use (annual distance traveled) for elementary vehicle categories—defined by factors such as Euro emission standards, engine type, and fuel—is difficult without direct empirical evidence. The authors argue that existing methods rely on aggregated data or qualitative assessments, which are insufficient for precise pollutant emission inventories. To resolve this, the study proposes two original mathematical models to estimate the intensity of motor vehicle use based on their environmental performance categories. The methodology involves classifying motor vehicles into elementary categories based on criteria such as construction purpose, contractual size, fuel type, and technological level, specifically focusing on the stage of environmental protection regulations (e.g., Pre-Euro, Euro 1–6). The authors assign numerical values to these categories, where higher numbers correspond to newer, cleaner vehicles. They then develop two models to calculate the relative intensity of use ($k$) for these categories. Model 1 utilizes an exponential function, while Model 2 employs an arctangent function. These models are designed to scale the average annual mileage of elementary categories relative to cumulative categories. The parameters for these models were tuned based on existing knowledge from INFRAS AG software and EU CORINAIR reports, as classic identification methods were not feasible due to data scarcity. The study asserts that Model 1 is more effective for this application. The proposed models were applied to inventory pollutant emissions from motor vehicles in Poland for the years 2000–2015. The results demonstrate that despite an increase in the total number of vehicles and their usage intensity, national annual emissions of nitrogen oxides, PM10, and PM2.5 decreased significantly after 2007. This reduction is attributed to technical progress in vehicle design and the shift toward vehicles with higher environmental performance standards. The models successfully accounted for the fact that newer vehicles, which have better emission characteristics, tend to have higher average annual mileage than older vehicles. The significance of this work lies in its claim to be the first unique global undertaking to model the intensity of motor vehicle use by elementary categories based on pollutant emission criteria. By providing a method to estimate annual mileage for specific vehicle types without direct empirical tracking, the study offers a practical tool for improving the accuracy of road transport emission inventories. This approach allows for more precise environmental impact assessments and supports regulatory efforts by linking vehicle technical levels directly to emission estimates.

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