Deterioration Prediction Modelling and Inspection Schedule Estimation for Concrete Bridge Decks

Chyad, Aqeed Mohsin; Abudayyeh, Osama · 2020 · Crossref

DOI: 10.32732/jcec.2020.9.2.63

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

Get this paper ↗ (DOI — opens at the source; we link to it, we don't host it)

Summary

This study addresses the inefficiencies in current bridge inspection protocols, which mandate a fixed two-year interval regardless of a bridge’s actual condition. The authors aim to develop deterioration prediction models for concrete bridge decks to estimate the Time in Condition Ratings (TICR) and evaluate how Average Daily Traffic (ADT), age, and deck area influence deterioration rates. By accurately predicting how long a deck remains in a specific condition rating, transportation agencies can optimize inspection schedules, extending intervals for well-maintained bridges and focusing resources on critical infrastructure. The researchers analyzed 24 years of data (1992–2015) from the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) for concrete bridge decks in Michigan. The dataset was rigorously pre-processed to exclude bridges with severe deterioration (ratings 0–3), new constructions (rating 9), or records affected by repairs, miscoding, or inspector errors. Key variables—ADT, age, and deck area—were categorized into specific bins to assess their impact. To determine the most accurate statistical model for the TICR data, the authors applied the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test to five probability distributions: exponential, Weibull, lognormal, normal, and gamma. The lognormal distribution was selected as the best fit for the Michigan data, particularly for its ability to handle the skewness and tail behavior of the deterioration rates. The results indicate that TICR decreases as the condition rating worsens. A deck rated at 8 (very good) remains in that condition for an average of 11.29 years before dropping to a rating of 7, whereas a deck rated at 4 (poor) stays in that state for only 6.64 years before dropping to 3. Crucially, all calculated TICRs exceeded the standard two-year inspection interval, suggesting that inspections for bridges in good condition could be safely extended. The analysis further revealed that ADT, age, and deck area significantly impact deterioration. For instance, bridges with low ADT (<4,000 vehicles/day), age under 25 years, and small deck areas (<500 m²) remained in a rating of 8 for 13.35 years, compared to just 9.68 years for bridges with high ADT (>10,000 vehicles/day). Similarly, older bridges (>25 years) deteriorated faster than newer ones under identical traffic and area conditions. The significance of this work lies in its potential to inform risk-based inspection policies. The findings support extending inspection intervals beyond two years for bridges in good condition, thereby reducing costs and improving resource allocation. By quantifying the specific impacts of traffic, age, and size, the study provides a statistical framework for transportation agencies to tailor maintenance schedules to the actual deterioration rates of their bridge networks, moving away from uniform, calendar-based inspections.

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed.

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• incidence prevalence