Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Connelly Luke, B; Susan, Gargett; Son, Nghiem · 2011 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-270

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Summary

This study evaluates Australia’s progress toward its national road safety target of no more than 5.6 road traffic crash (RTC) fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010. Motivated by the global burden of RTCs and the policy utility of quantified targets, the authors aimed to assess whether Australia and its individual states and territories were on track to meet this goal. The research addresses the gap between policy aspirations and actual achievements, providing a benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of national and sub-national road safety strategies implemented since the early 1990s. The researchers utilized annual RTC fatality rate data for Australia and its eight jurisdictions from 1971 to 2009, sourced from the Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics. They employed univariate time-series models, specifically exponential and power (geometric) trend specifications, to estimate past trends and forecast future outcomes. The analysis focused primarily on the 1992–2009 period, corresponding to the operation of Australia’s first two National Road Safety Strategies, as this timeframe offered sufficient data points and consistent policy context. Linear and quadratic models were rejected due to their potential to forecast negative rates or unrealistic increases. The study also conducted descriptive analyses comparing recent fatality averages (2007–2009) against the 2010 target requirements. Results indicate that while all jurisdictions experienced statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971, the national rate decreased by an average of only 3% per year since 1992. Consequently, the study projects that Australia is unlikely to meet the 2010 target until approximately 2016. Significant regional disparities exist: the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria had already achieved rates below the target, whereas the Northern Territory’s rate remained roughly four times higher than the target. The analysis highlights that without "trend-breaking" changes in factors influencing RTC fatalities, such as legislative or engineering interventions, several jurisdictions will likely remain above the national target for years. The findings underscore a persistent gap between Australia’s road safety aspirations and its actual performance. The study concludes that while historical trends show improvement, current trajectories are insufficient to meet the 2010 deadline. This suggests that existing strategies may need reassessment or that more radical interventions are required to accelerate reductions in RTC fatalities. The research emphasizes the importance of monitoring progress against targets to inform policy adjustments and highlights the variability in road safety outcomes across different Australian jurisdictions.

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Topics

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• fatality injury trends
• comparative international
• demographic disparities

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes