Insight between Energy Factors and Digitalization on Road Freight Volume: Evidence from Kazakhstan

Koshetayev, Dias; Sadykhanova, Dinara; Seisenbekov, Arman; Akhmetova, Zauresh; Lukina, Anastasiya · 2026 · Crossref

DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.22812

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Summary

This study investigates the impact of energy factors and digitalization levels on road freight volume in Kazakhstan, a landlocked nation serving as a critical transit corridor between Europe and Asia. Given Kazakhstan’s reliance on road transport for logistics and its vulnerability to geopolitical instability and energy price volatility, the research aims to quantify how variables such as diesel prices, energy consumption, carbon emissions, and digital infrastructure influence automotive cargo turnover. The motivation stems from the need to optimize freight transport efficiency amidst rising logistical costs and the country’s commitment to sustainable development goals. The authors employ annual time-series data from 2003 to 2023, sourced from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan and World Development Indicators. The dependent variable is automobile cargo turnover (million ton-km). Explanatory variables include the transport consumer price index, diesel price, total final energy consumption in transport, inflation, length of internal public roads, CO2 emissions from transport, ICT service exports, fixed broadband subscriptions, and the percentage of individuals using the internet. To address the complexity of these variables, the study utilizes two Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric models: NARDL1, which uses a logarithmic specification, and NARDL2, which uses a semi-logarithmic specification. Unit root tests confirmed that variables were stationary at either level or first difference, validating the use of ARDL methodology for analyzing both long-run and short-run relationships. The paper establishes the methodological framework for assessing these relationships, noting that road transport accounts for approximately 83% of Kazakhstan’s total freight volume. The analysis highlights the significant role of fuel prices and energy intensity in determining transportation expenses and logistical efficiency. While the provided text details the model construction, variable definitions, and stationarity tests, it truncates before presenting the specific numerical coefficients or statistical significance of the final regression results. However, the study confirms that the variables exhibit consistent time patterns suitable for the proposed nonlinear modeling, allowing for the examination of how digitalization metrics, such as internet usage and ICT exports, interact with traditional energy factors like diesel prices and CO2 emissions. The significance of this research lies in its contribution to understanding the interplay between energy economics and digital transformation in a developing transit economy. By isolating the effects of digitalization alongside traditional energy inputs, the study provides a basis for policy recommendations aimed at reducing logistics costs and improving transport efficiency. The findings are relevant for stakeholders seeking to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability, particularly in regions where road freight is the dominant mode of transport and where infrastructure modernization is constrained by high depreciation rates and limited investment.

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