Future Cost Benefits Analysis for Electrified Vehicles from Advances Due to U.S. Department of Energy Targets

Islam, Ehsan Sabri; Moawad, Ayman; Kim, Namdoo; Rousseau, Aymeric · 2021 · Crossref

DOI: 10.3390/wevj12020084

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Summary

This study quantifies the impact of U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) research and development targets on the energy consumption and manufacturing costs of electrified vehicles. The research addresses limitations in existing evaluation methods, which often fail to assess individual technology benefits or technological synergies. By implementing a large-scale simulation process, the authors aim to determine how specific VTO targets for components such as engines, batteries, electric machines, and lightweighting materials influence vehicle performance and cost across various powertrains and timeframes. The methodology utilizes Autonomie, a vehicle simulation tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory, to model tens of thousands of vehicle configurations. The study covers five EPA vehicle classes (compact, midsize, small SUV, midsize SUV, and pickup) and five powertrain types: conventional, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations were conducted for "laboratory years" 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045, applying DOE-VTO technology assumptions for engine efficiency, battery energy density, and component costs. Automated sizing algorithms ensured that vehicles met specific technical specifications, allowing for fair comparisons of energy efficiency and cost impacts under standard regulatory driving cycles. The results demonstrate significant reductions in both fuel consumption and manufacturing costs due to VTO R&D targets compared to historical trends. Over the analyzed timeframe, fuel consumption for electrified vehicles is projected to decrease by 40–50%, while vehicle manufacturing costs are expected to drop by 45–55%. Specifically, midsize power-split HEVs consume approximately 41% less fuel than conventional vehicles in 2015, a gap that narrows to 32% by 2045 as conventional technology improves. In contrast, PHEVs show increasing fuel savings relative to conventional vehicles, with PHEV20s improving from 41% savings in 2015 to 59–69% in 2045. BEVs maintain substantial fuel consumption advantages, though the relative improvement over conventional vehicles decreases slightly as conventional efficiency gains accelerate. Manufacturing costs for electrified vehicles decline primarily due to reductions in battery and electric machine costs, which offset increases in glider costs associated with lightweighting. The study concludes that DOE-VTO targets drive substantial economic and efficiency benefits for electrified vehicles. While conventional vehicles see significant efficiency improvements, electrified powertrains achieve greater absolute reductions in fuel consumption and manufacturing costs. The analysis highlights that technological synergies, particularly in battery energy density and electric machine cost reductions, are critical for the long-term viability and competitiveness of electrified transportation technologies.

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