The Impact of Rainfall and Temperature on Peak and Off-Peak Urban Traffic

Essien, Aniekan; Petrounias, Ilias; Sampaio, Pedro; Sampaio, Sandra · 2018 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-98812-2_36

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Summary

This study quantifies the impact of rainfall and temperature intensities on urban traffic flow parameters, specifically addressing a gap in existing literature that predominantly focuses on freeway or highway traffic. The research aims to provide policymakers with data-driven insights to improve traffic management strategies by analyzing how weather conditions affect driving behavior, travel demand, and congestion in urban environments with reduced operating speeds (30 mph). The authors emphasize the necessity of separating peak and off-peak periods to accurately assess weather impacts, as previous studies often overlooked this distinction. The methodology utilizes traffic data from Transport for Greater Manchester, collected via Inductive Loop Devices and Bluetooth sensors on Chester Road (A56) in Stretford, UK, throughout 2014. Weather data, including hourly temperature and precipitation, was sourced from the University of Manchester’s Centre for Atmospheric Studies. Rainfall was categorized into light (<0.5 mm), moderate (0.5–4.0 mm), and heavy (>4.0 mm) intensities, while temperature was classified into freezing, cold, normal, warm, and hot categories. The analysis excluded weekends and holidays, focusing solely on workdays, with peak hours defined as 08:00–10:00 and 17:00–19:00. Statistical analyses, including ANOVA, were performed to evaluate speed, volume, and density relationships. The results indicate significant variations in traffic flow based on weather intensity and time of day. During peak hours, heavy rainfall reduced average operating speeds by 9.74% (approximately 2–3 mph), while moderate rainfall caused a 2.61% reduction; light rainfall had negligible impact. Temperature also significantly affected peak traffic, with hot temperatures (>20°C) reducing average speeds by 36.5% (5–6 mph) despite a 6.6% increase in traffic volume. In contrast, off-peak periods showed different trends: higher temperatures increased average speeds by 15.7% but reduced traffic volume by 36.8% during hot conditions. The study confirms that traffic flow parameters are statistically significant across all weather categories, with the magnitude of impact dependent on both intensity and time period. This research is significant as it is the first to quantify weather impacts on urban arterial traffic at 30 mph limits, contrasting with prior studies on higher-speed freeways. The findings demonstrate that temperature has a substantial, previously underreported effect on urban traffic speed and volume, particularly during peak hours. By distinguishing between peak and off-peak effects, the study offers crucial intelligence for developing adaptive traffic control measures. The authors conclude that incorporating weather data into traffic modeling can enhance network utilization and congestion management, suggesting future research expand to multi-year datasets and include weekend/holiday patterns.

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• traffic density