Investigating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Traffic Crash Injury Outcomes among Different Demographic Groups

Raha, Faria; Russo, Brendan; Ryan, Alyssa · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.32866/001c.143776

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Summary

This study investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced motor vehicle crash injury severity among drivers in California, specifically examining disparities across demographic groups. Motivated by prior research indicating that while total crash volumes decreased during stay-at-home orders, risky driving behaviors increased, leading to more severe outcomes, the authors sought to determine if the pandemic disproportionately affected specific populations. The research questions focused on whether the pandemic increased the likelihood of injury crashes and whether these effects varied by driver age, race, and sex. The authors hypothesized that young and Black drivers would experience higher odds of severe crash outcomes during the pandemic period compared to pre-pandemic conditions. The analysis utilized data from the California Highway Patrol’s Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System (TIMS), covering January 2019 to April 2021. The dataset comprised 1,413,661 records involving drivers aged 18 to 97. Records were categorized as “pre-pandemic” (before March 2020) or “pandemic” (March 2020 to April 2021). Crash injury severity was binary-coded as “Injury” (including fatal, severe, visible injury, or pain complaints) or “No injury” (property damage only). Binary logistic regression models were employed to assess the impact of demographic characteristics on injury severity, incorporating interaction terms to evaluate the pandemic’s effect on age, race, and sex. Marginal probabilities and confidence intervals were used to quantify these effects. The findings indicate that the pandemic was associated with an increased probability of injury crashes across all demographic groups. Young drivers aged 18–27 experienced a 2.3% increase in injury likelihood, while those aged 28–37 saw a 1.7% increase. Black drivers exhibited the highest probability of injury crashes both before and during the pandemic. During the pandemic period, the probability of injury crashes for Black drivers increased by 1.8 percentage points for females and 2.6 percentage points for males, representing the largest increases among all racial groups. Significant interactions were found between driver sex, age, and the pandemic effect. Specifically, middle-aged female drivers (48–67) experienced higher odds of crash injury severity compared to similarly aged males, a finding potentially confounded by inherent differences in injury outcomes between sexes under similar crash conditions. These results highlight inequitable safety outcomes during the pandemic, confirming that young and Black drivers were disproportionately impacted. The study underscores the need to consider demographic vulnerabilities in traffic safety planning and policy, particularly during periods of disrupted travel patterns. By identifying specific groups with heightened risks, the research provides evidence-based insights for targeted interventions to mitigate severe crash outcomes in future public health emergencies.

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Topics

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• demographic disparities
• fatality injury trends
• incidence prevalence
• sex gender

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes