The impact of temperature on battery electric vehicle penetration

Cervini, Gaia; Burra, Lavan Teja; Jung, Jinha; Gkritza, Konstantina · 2026 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.1038/s44333-026-00109-0

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Summary

This study investigates how ambient temperature influences the market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the United States, addressing a gap in understanding regional adoption disparities. While BEV sales have grown nationally, penetration remains uneven, with significant underperformance in regions experiencing extreme thermal conditions. The authors hypothesize that the well-documented sensitivity of lithium-ion batteries to heat and cold—manifesting as reduced range, slower charging, and increased energy consumption for cabin heating—deters consumer adoption. The research aims to quantify these climatic effects while controlling for infrastructure, socioeconomic factors, and spatial dependencies. To test this hypothesis, the researchers analyzed ZIP code-level panel data from 2021 to 2023 across 12 climatically diverse US states. They employed a two-way spatial autoregressive fixed effects model (SARAR) to account for geographic spillovers and unobserved regional factors. The analysis utilized novel temperature metrics, including daily average temperature variability and the frequency of days with minimum temperatures below 5 °C. The model controlled for variables such as charging infrastructure density (Level 2 and DC fast chargers), income, education, housing density, and commute times. Robustness checks confirmed the stability of results across alternative temperature operationalizations and spatial weighting schemes. The findings reveal a significant nonlinear relationship between temperature variability and BEV penetration. In thermally stable areas, BEV share increases by up to 0.72%. However, once temperature variability exceeds a threshold of 7.6 °C, the effect reverses, leading to declines in penetration. At high variability levels (e.g., 18.4 °C), BEV share decreases by approximately 0.75%. Additionally, cold exposure independently suppresses adoption; each additional 100 days annually with minimum temperatures below 5 °C reduces BEV share by 0.25%. Infrastructure proved to be a critical countermeasure, with DC fast charger density showing the strongest positive association with penetration. Spatial analysis indicated that BEV adoption in one area positively influences neighboring regions, highlighting the role of peer effects and shared infrastructure perceptions. The study concludes that temperature is a key determinant of BEV diffusion, with thermal instability and cold extremes acting as significant barriers. These findings underscore the need for targeted policy measures and technological advancements to improve vehicle performance in extreme climates. The results suggest that strategic deployment of fast-charging infrastructure can mitigate range anxiety and accelerate adoption, particularly in regions with challenging thermal conditions. Furthermore, the observed spatial spillovers imply that coordinated regional planning and infrastructure investments are essential for overcoming localized barriers and promoting broader transportation electrification.

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