Falling short in 2030: Simulating battery-electric vehicle adoption behaviour in the Netherlands

Paradies, Geerte L.; Usmani, O.; Lamboo, Sam; van den Brink, R.W. · 2023 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.102968

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Summary

This study addresses the challenge of meeting the Netherlands' 2030 target for 100% zero-emission new car sales, specifically focusing on the adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) by private car buyers. While financial incentives have driven significant BEV uptake in the company car sector, private adoption remains low. The authors aim to identify the specific barriers and drivers influencing private consumers' choices to inform effective policy design. To achieve this, they developed and applied a computational model named CODEC (Consumer Decisions Comprehended), a hybrid choice model that integrates technical, financial, and behavioral factors, including social influences and routine purchasing behaviors often overlooked in other research. The CODEC model simulates consumer decision-making through three phases: Attention (identifying the need for a new car), Enable (assessing practical feasibility such as range and charging access), and Intention (evaluating attractiveness based on costs, characteristics, and social norms). The model was initialized using data from a 2019 survey of 1,522 prospective car buyers, which provided inputs for psychological factors, willingness to pay, and perceptions of vehicle attributes. The study focused exclusively on privately owned new cars, comparing gasoline and BEV options, as diesel and plug-in hybrid markets were deemed negligible for this segment. The model calculates a deliberation score for each vehicle type, combining enablement scores with intention weights derived from regression analysis of the survey data. The results indicate that the BEV market share in new private car sales in the Netherlands will reach only 26% to 40% by 2030, falling significantly short of the government's 100% target. The analysis reveals that traditional barriers, such as higher purchase prices and limited driving range, will become less influential over time as technology improves and costs decrease. Instead, by 2030, routine purchasing behavior and social factors will constitute the primary obstacles to widespread adoption. Specifically, the model highlights that social comparison (the desire to conform to peers) and routine decision-making patterns hinder the shift to BEVs. Furthermore, factors that positively influence BEV adoption have a relatively small effect compared to these barriers. The study concludes that current policy measures are insufficient to achieve the 2030 target for private car buyers. Because positive incentives for BEVs have limited impact, the authors suggest that new policy measures must address routine behavior and social norms. Additionally, they recommend considering measures that reduce the attractiveness of gasoline vehicles, rather than solely promoting BEVs. This research underscores the importance of incorporating psychological and social dimensions into EV adoption models to accurately predict market penetration and design effective transition policies.

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