Heavy vehicle crashes in Addis Ababa: Relationship between contributing factors and severity of outcomes

Tulu, Getu Segni; Lisinge, Robert Tama; Wedajo, Bikila Teklu · 2022 · Crossref

DOI: 10.14254/jsdtl.2022.7-2.2

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Summary

This study investigates the factors contributing to heavy vehicle crashes and their severity in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, motivated by the city’s disproportionate share of national heavy vehicles and rising road traffic fatalities. With heavy vehicles accounting for over 30% of road deaths in the city between 2014 and 2017, the research aims to identify specific risk factors to inform evidence-based safety interventions. The authors analyze police-reported data on 8,253 heavy vehicle-related crashes occurring from July 2014 to June 2017. The methodology employs descriptive statistics and random parameter logit regression to assess the relationship between contributing variables—such as driver demographics, vehicle characteristics, and road infrastructure—and crash outcomes categorized as fatal, serious injury, slight injury, or property damage only. The analysis reveals that fatal crashes are significantly more likely to occur during daytime hours and on weekdays, correlating with high truck circulation volumes associated with construction activities. Young drivers, particularly those aged 21–40, are disproportionately involved in crashes, a trend attributed to licensing reforms that allow direct qualification for truck licenses without prior experience. While young drivers are more frequently involved in crashes overall, the likelihood of outcomes escalating to fatalities or serious injuries increases slightly as driver age increases. Female driver involvement is negligible, with males accounting for 99.84% of crashes. Regression results identify several significant predictors of crash severity. Lower levels of driver education, specifically elementary or below, significantly increase the likelihood of fatal crashes compared to property damage. Conversely, drivers with high school or degree-level education show reduced risks. Vehicle ownership structure also plays a critical role; crashes involving vehicles owned by companies or government organizations, as well as those where the driver is not the owner, are more likely to result in fatalities. Additionally, the presence of inappropriate road median designs and specific intersection types (four legs or more) contribute to fatal outcomes. Dump trucks were found to have a higher association with injury and property damage crashes compared to other heavy vehicle types. The study concludes that reducing fatalities and injuries requires strict enforcement of traffic regulations, particularly speed limits, alongside reforms in driver training and certification to address the risks posed by inexperienced young drivers. It also highlights the need for improved safety cultures among vehicle owners and better road infrastructure design. These findings align with Ethiopia’s national road safety strategy launched in July 2022, suggesting that current governmental steps are addressing the identified systemic issues. The research provides a critical evidence base for targeting interventions toward high-risk periods, driver demographics, and vehicle management practices in Addis Ababa.

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• demographic disparities
• comparative international
• bus coach

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes