Comparison of the military convoys' cross-country mobility estimation results for Croatian conditions
DOI: 10.5592/co/cetra.2024.1602
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Summary
This study addresses the lack of official guidelines for assessing the cross-country mobility of military convoys in Croatia, a critical factor for combat operations and routing. The research focuses on estimating the average traveling speed (ATS) of military convoys on two-way rural roads, which constitute over 94% of Croatia’s road network. The investigation aims to determine how field conditions, specifically road grade and segment length, and the dynamic characteristics of vehicles, particularly the high proportion of heavy vehicles (HVs), influence convoy speed. The study compares results derived from two different methodologies: the Transportation Research Board’s Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 4th edition and the HCM 7th edition. The methodology involved calculating ATS for hypothetical road segments with linear horizontal alignment, vertical grades exceeding 6%, and lengths ranging from 0.4 to 6.4 km. The analysis assumed military convoys of up to twenty vehicles, including defenders (treated as passenger cars) and HVs such as 5-tonne and 10-tonne trucks and flatbed trailers. Convoys were modeled with HV compositions of 60%, 70%, and 80%. Base free-flow speeds (BFFS) of 40, 50, and 60 km/h were used. The HCM 4th edition methodology applied grade and HV adjustment factors to determine demand flow rates, while the HCM 7th edition classified vertical alignment to estimate HV influence on BFFS reduction. The results revealed significant discrepancies between the two methodologies. The HCM 4th edition showed that speed reduction on upgrades depended on BFFS, segment length, and HV percentage, with reductions ranging from 2% to 20%. On downgrades, speed reduction was minimal (1% to 3%) and independent of segment length. In contrast, the HCM 7th edition demonstrated greater sensitivity to segment length, grade, BFFS, and convoy composition. Speed reductions under the 7th edition were substantially higher, ranging from 8% to 51% on upgrades. Specifically, the ATS estimated by the 7th edition was on average 10 to 15 km/h lower than that of the 4th edition. The study also derived a linear equation for ATS as a function of segment length for the 7th edition methodology. The significance of this research lies in highlighting the limitations of existing theoretical models for military logistics. The findings indicate that the HCM 7th edition provides more conservative and sensitive estimates of mobility, which may be more appropriate for challenging terrains. However, due to the significant differences in results, the authors conclude that further field research is necessary to validate the applicability of these methodologies under local Croatian conditions. This work serves as a foundation for future investigations into convoy traffic flow modeling and routing optimization.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | Crossref | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| archive | success | canonical_url | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
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| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
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| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-25 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
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