Effects of the Attributes Associated with Roadway Geometry, Traffic Volumes and Speeds on the Incidence of Accidents in a Mid-Size City
DOI: 10.11144/javeriana.iyu19-2.eaar
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Summary
This study investigates the factors influencing traffic accident frequency in Ocaña, a mid-sized city in Colombia, where road accidents represent a significant public health crisis. Motivated by a 175% increase in accidents between 2007 and 2011, with motorcycles involved in 78% of cases, the research aims to quantify the impact of roadway geometry, traffic volumes, and speeds on accident incidence. The authors seek to provide government agencies with data-driven tools to identify causes and implement targeted safety policies. The methodology employed a statistical modeling approach using accident data from 2007 to 2013. The researchers analyzed 1,062 accidents recorded across 15 urban road corridors. Field measurements were conducted to gather explanatory variables, categorized into roadway geometry and conditions (road width, number of intersections, pavement type, road length, traffic direction, and road functionality), traffic volumes (daily averages for motorcycles, light vehicles, and heavy vehicles), and speeds (50th percentile). The study calibrated accident-frequency models using Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) regressions. The analysis excluded variables related to driver condition, weather, and accident severity due to data limitations. The results indicate that road width, number of intersections, pavement type, traffic volumes, and average speed are statistically significant predictors of accident frequency. Specifically, wider roads, a higher number of intersections, and flexible pavement were associated with increased accident rates. Among traffic volumes, higher counts of motorcycles and heavy vehicles significantly increased accident frequency, while light vehicle traffic showed a negative correlation, likely reflecting the dominance of motorcycles and heavy vehicles in high-risk corridors. Contrary to common expectations, higher average speeds (P50) were associated with a decrease in accidents, a finding the authors attribute to low speed variability in the study sections. Variables such as road length, traffic direction, and road functionality were not statistically significant. The analysis revealed that the data was not overdispersed, causing the NB model to collapse into the Poisson distribution, making the latter the more appropriate fit. The study concludes that urban road safety in Ocaña is significantly influenced by geometric design and vehicle composition. The findings suggest that policy interventions should focus on reviewing road geometry standards, particularly regarding road width and intersection design. Furthermore, the strong correlation between motorcycle and heavy vehicle volumes and accident rates highlights the need for targeted measures, such as traffic segregation, exclusive motorcycle lanes, and restrictions on heavy vehicles in urban centers. The authors also recommend encouraging public transportation to reduce reliance on informal motorcycle transport, thereby lowering overall accident incidence.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | Crossref | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| archive | success | openalex | — | — | 5 | 2026-06-26 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-25 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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- Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes