Impacts of Transit Oriented Development on Public Transportation Ridership

Hendricks, Sara J.; Winters, Phil; Wambalaba, Francis; Barbeau, Sean; Catala, Martin; Thomas, Keith · 2005 · ROSA P / University of South Florida. Center for Urban Transportation Research

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Summary

This Phase I report, conducted by the University of South Florida’s Center for Urban Transportation Research, addresses the relationship between Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and public transportation ridership. Motivated by increasing traffic congestion and highway maintenance costs in Florida, the study investigates whether TOD policies can effectively shift travelers from single-occupant vehicles to public transit. The initial hypothesis posited that high-quality transit combined with high-quality TOD would successfully alter mode share. However, the research determined this hypothesis to be an oversimplification, concluding that while good transit and TOD are necessary, they are not sufficient on their own to drive significant behavioral change. The methodology involved a comprehensive literature review, internal focus groups, and an analysis of existing Florida developments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), site observations, and interviews with transit agency representatives and municipal planners. The researchers also evaluated data collection technologies, specifically testing GPS and Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) tools like TRAC-IT® to assess their viability for longitudinal travel diaries. The study aimed to isolate the specific features of TOD that generate effectiveness, moving beyond aggregate data to understand micro-level travel behaviors. The findings indicate that land use and urban form are less critical determinants of travel behavior than factors such as income, attitudes, preferences, and auto ownership. For TOD to successfully increase transit mode share, it must be supported by a broader context including excellent regional transit access, a network of TODs, disincentives for driving, incentives for transit use, and strong non-transportation marketability of the developments. The study identified significant measurement challenges, including the difficulty of defining TOD consistently and the lack of suitable empirical data in Florida, where most developments have excessive parking and lack the necessary constraints to force mode shifts. Consequently, the report proposes a Phase II research design centered on a multi-year panel survey in Broward County, Florida. This design utilizes a pre-test/post-test approach to track the same individuals over time, leveraging cell phone technology to capture detailed travel data, including non-commute trips which constitute over 80% of all travel. The authors argue that such longitudinal data is essential for developing accurate activity-based and dynamic travel models. The significance of this work lies in its recommendation for a robust, disaggregate data collection strategy that accounts for Florida’s unique urban form and demographic trends, providing a foundation for better travel forecasting and more effective TOD policy implementation nationwide.

Key finding

Good quality transit service is necessary and good quality TOD is likely helpful but not sufficient to shift mode share, as other factors such as urban spatial structure, driving disincentives, and transit incentives are also required.

Methodology

review

Provenance

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