The Impacts of the Mass Rapid Transit System on Household Car Ownership in Taipei

Huang, Wen-Hsiu; Chao, Ming-Che · 2014 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.13044/j.sdewes.2014.02.0016

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Summary

This study investigates whether the establishment of the Taipei Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system reduced household car ownership and how socioeconomic characteristics influence these decisions. Motivated by the observation that Taipei’s average car ownership per household decreased from 0.56 in 1996 to 0.52 in 2012, while Taiwan’s overall average increased, the authors seek to determine if the MRT system was the causal factor behind this divergence. The research addresses a gap in existing literature, which often relies on aggregated data or cross-sectional studies that fail to capture behavioral heterogeneity or establish causal links between public transport infrastructure and vehicle ownership. To isolate the impact of the MRT, the authors employ a difference-in-difference (DID) strategy integrated with count data regression models. The study utilizes data from Taiwan’s Family Income and Expenditure Survey (1986–2006), focusing on households in Taipei (treatment group) and Kaohsiung (control group). Kaohsiung served as the control because it lacked an MRT system during the sample period. The analysis compares changes in car ownership before (1986–1995) and after (1997–2006) the Taipei MRT’s launch, excluding 1996 due to ambiguous initial effects. The authors tested three models: Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and generalized Poisson regression. Model selection tests, including likelihood ratio tests and information criteria (AIC/BIC), determined that the generalized Poisson model was the most appropriate fit, as the data exhibited under-dispersion (variance less than the mean) rather than the over-dispersion or excess zeros assumed by the other models. The empirical results confirm that the establishment of the Taipei MRT significantly reduced household car ownership. The DID estimator in the generalized Poisson model yielded a negative and statistically significant coefficient for the interaction term, indicating that Taipei households owned fewer cars relative to Kaohsiung households after the MRT’s introduction. Additionally, the study found that household car ownership is strongly correlated with socioeconomic factors. Higher household income, larger household size, and greater educational attainment of the household head were associated with increased car ownership. Conversely, households with high dependence on public transport owned fewer cars post-MRT. The analysis also controlled for variables such as gender, employment status, labor market participation, and the number of parking lots and motorcycles. The findings suggest that expanding MRT networks is a feasible policy tool for controlling car ownership and promoting sustainable transportation. The study highlights that public transport development can effectively suppress vehicle accumulation, particularly among households already inclined to use transit. These results imply that traffic authorities should focus on enhancing public transit accessibility and encouraging its use to mitigate the growth of private vehicle ownership, thereby supporting energy sustainability and reducing traffic congestion.

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