The Relevance of Australasian Road Safety Strategies in a Future Context

Hughes, Brett; Falkmer, Torbjorn; Anund, Anna · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.33492/jacrs-d-18-00101

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Summary

This paper addresses the stagnation of road safety improvements in Australasia, where long-term declines in fatalities have lessened and targets are increasingly difficult to meet. The authors argue that current strategies rely on outdated policy tools and fail to account for the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous nature of future transport contexts. To evaluate the robustness of these strategies, the study assesses ten Australasian government road safety strategies against two criteria: a comprehensive systems framework and readiness for future changes. The methodology involved downloading ten strategies from Australian states, territories, and New Zealand, covering periods from 2008 to 2026. The lead author assessed each strategy using a five-point scale based on two frameworks. The first was the “7P System” framework, which evaluates Purpose, Policy Tools, Parts, Participants, Principles, Processes, and Partnerships. The second framework assessed five future change criteria: new technologies, new markets and business models, different consumer demands, the nature of the future, and future situation assessment. A score of 2 represented a minimally acceptable level of inclusion for specific concepts and actions. The results indicated that the assessed strategies were generally weak in their comprehensive systems approach and unprepared for future challenges. Across the seven 7P criteria, only 29% of individual scores exceeded the minimum acceptable level, while 27% fell below it. The highest average scores were for Policy Tools (2.60) and Principles (2.40), whereas Partnerships (1.30) and Participants (1.70) received the lowest averages. Regarding future readiness, the strategies largely failed to address disruptive changes such as automation, Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), and shifting consumer preferences. The analysis revealed that current strategies are historical in nature, relying on traditional engineering, enforcement, and education tools rather than broader systemic interventions. The authors conclude that Australasian road safety strategies require significant improvement to remain relevant. They recommend incorporating more thorough systems approaches, including broader policy tools, diverse participants, and clearer system relationships. Furthermore, strategies must prepare for future uncertainties by addressing technological advancements, emerging business models, and changing consumer behaviors. The paper suggests adopting analytical techniques such as scenario analysis and real options analysis to better manage the unpredictability of the future transport system, ensuring that road safety management remains resilient and effective.

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