Seattle wide-area information for travelers (SWIFT) : deployment cost study

Jensen, Mark · 1998 · ROSA P / Science Applications International Corporation

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Summary

This paper presents the results of the Seattle Wide-area Information For Travelers (SWIFT) Deployment Cost Study, an independent analysis conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility of deploying an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) based on the SWIFT Field Operational Test (FOT). The SWIFT project, conducted from 1993 to 1997, tested a High Speed Data System (HSDS) using FM sub-carrier technology to disseminate incident, bus, and congestion data to commuters via pager watches, portable computers, and in-vehicle navigation devices. The primary motivation for this study was to provide the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and project participants with a Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) and a Commercial Viability Analysis (CVA) to determine if "SWIFT-like" systems could operate as sustainable commercial enterprises nationwide. The methodology involved estimating costs across three life-cycle phases: FOT development, commercial development, and annual commercial operations. Data was collected from seven key participants, including Seiko Communications Systems (SCS), Metro Networks, Etak, the University of Washington (UW), King County Metro Transit, IBM, and Delco Electronics. The LCCE utilized standard cost estimation techniques to calculate labor and Other Direct Costs (ODCs) for each participant. The CVA methodology estimated annual revenues by analyzing consumer market potential, market penetration rates, and subscription fees derived from "willingness to pay" surveys conducted during the FOT. These projected revenues were then compared against the estimated annual operations costs to assess profitability. The study found that the total life cycle cost for a fully deployed SWIFT system was approximately $11.98 million over five years. This included $6.36 million for FOT development, $1.51 million for commercial development, and $0.82 million in annual operations costs. The cost structure shifted significantly across phases; SCS bore the largest share of costs during the initial development phase due to hardware and software creation, while Metro Networks accounted for the largest share during commercial operations due to Traffic Work Station (TWS) management. The CVA results indicated that SWIFT is commercially viable. Even under the most conservative market penetration scenario, annual revenues were projected to exceed annual operations costs by a factor of more than 3 to 1. Under this conservative model, assuming a 6% loan rate, the system would achieve a break-even point in approximately 4.5 years, aligning with typical corporate return-on-investment expectations. The significance of these findings lies in the demonstration that FM-subcarrier ATIS systems can be profitable commercial ventures. The study concludes that deploying similar systems in other metropolitan areas could yield dramatic savings in development costs by leveraging existing expertise, validated technologies, and reduced government oversight. Key lessons learned emphasize the importance of sound market-penetration scenarios and the need for future public-private joint ventures to stipulate detailed, activity-based cost tracking in teaming agreements to ensure transparency and efficient cost management.

Key finding

Annual revenues from a deployed SWIFT system are projected to exceed annual operations costs by a factor of more than 3 to 1 under conservative market penetration scenarios.

Methodology

dataset

Sample size: 690

Provenance

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