The effects of selected factors on regional road fatalities – analysis of the Łódź region

Wachnicka, Joanna; Budzyński, Marcin; Kustra, Wojciech; Gobis, Anna · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1051/matecconf/201926205016

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Summary

This study addresses the inefficacy of centralized national road safety policies in Poland, which fail to account for regional disparities in risk factors and accident types. The authors argue that while national programs have reduced fatalities, they remain insufficient, particularly in high-risk areas like the Łódź region. The research aims to develop a scientific tool for regional road safety management by analyzing the effects of specific demographic, economic, and infrastructure factors on road fatalities and forecasting outcomes under different treatment scenarios. Due to the scarcity of region-specific traffic data, such as kilometers traveled or detailed behavioral metrics, the researchers constructed a database using available national statistics from the Central Statistical Office and Eurostat. To overcome limited sample sizes for individual regions, a multi-factor model was developed using data from all sixteen Polish regions and subsequently calibrated specifically for the Łódź region. The methodology involved multidimensional analysis and data mining to identify significant variables. The dependent variable was the relative road fatality rate (RFR), modeled as a product of population size and the likelihood of becoming a victim. Key independent variables included passenger car motorization rates, population density, demographic density of motorways and express roads, and the price of alcohol. The analysis revealed that the Łódź region suffers from some of the worst safety rates in Poland, with fatalities per 100,000 population exceeding the national average. The calibrated model for Łódź demonstrated a strong fit ($R^2 = 87\%$). Results indicated that increases in passenger car motorization, population density, and the density of high-quality transit roads (motorways/expressways) correlate with a decrease in fatality rates. Additionally, higher alcohol prices were associated with reduced fatalities, reflecting changes in driver behavior. The study also highlighted strong collinearity between economic indicators like GDP per capita and gross pay, necessitating careful variable selection. The significance of this work lies in providing a quantitative framework for regional safety planning. Forecasts suggest that fatalities in the Łódź region could decrease by over 40% by 2030 and approximately 70% by 2050, provided there is significant investment in new motorways and express roads to divert transit traffic from smaller towns, alongside stricter enforcement of sobriety checks. The authors conclude that while current data limitations hinder precise modeling, these tools offer a vital step toward evidence-based, tactical road safety management that complements national strategies.

Key finding

The study found that increasing passenger car motorization rates, population density, and the density of motorways and express roads, along with raising alcohol prices, are significantly associated with reduced road fatality rates in the Łódź region.

Methodology

modeling

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• comparative international
• regulatory evaluation

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes