Assessing CO 2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030

Jochem, Patrick; Babrowski, Sonja; Fichtner, Wolf · 2015 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.05.007

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

Get this paper ↗ (DOI — opens at the source; we link to it, we don't host it)

Summary

This study addresses the uncertainty surrounding the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), challenging the assumption that they are inherently zero-emission. While European regulations classify BEVs as zero-emission to help manufacturers meet fleet targets, their actual environmental impact depends heavily on the electricity generation mix used for charging. The authors argue that discrepancies in previous assessments arise from differing methodologies regarding the timing of charging and the specific power plants utilized. The paper aims to quantify these emissions for Germany in 2030, a year projected to have a significant BEV market share, and to evaluate how charging strategies influence these outcomes. The researchers employed the PERSEUS-NET-TS model, an optimizing energy system model that minimizes system expenditures while satisfying electricity demand. The analysis assumes a 2030 scenario with 6 million electric vehicles in Germany, representing a 15% market share and an additional electricity demand of 14.4 TWh. The study compares four assessment methods: annual average electricity mix, time-dependent average mix, marginal electricity mix, and a balancing zero-emissions approach. Furthermore, it contrasts two charging strategies: uncontrolled charging, where vehicles charge immediately upon connection, and controlled charging, which optimizes charging times to align with grid conditions and renewable energy availability. The results demonstrate substantial discrepancies in calculated CO₂ emissions depending on the assessment method, ranging from zero emissions to approximately 0.55 kg CO₂ per kWh (equivalent to 110 g CO₂/km). Under certain conditions, particularly when assessed via the marginal electricity mix during periods of high fossil fuel usage, BEV emissions can exceed those of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. The study finds that controlled charging strategies can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by shifting demand to times with higher renewable energy availability, thereby relieving pressure on the electricity grid and improving the environmental profile of electric mobility. The significance of this work lies in its recommendation for consistent methodological standards in assessing EV emissions, urging researchers and policymakers to agree on key factors affecting these calculations. The findings imply that simply increasing BEV sales may not automatically reduce transport sector emissions if charging is uncontrolled and relies on fossil-heavy marginal generation. Consequently, the authors advocate for policy instruments that promote controlled charging to ensure that electric vehicles contribute effectively to greenhouse gas reduction targets and grid stability.

Provenance

The full processing record for this entry. Every stage of this paper's journey through the pipeline is logged — what ran, with which tool and model, how many attempts it took, and when it last completed.

Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.

Topics

Ranked by relevance to this paper. Hover a topic for its definition.

• eco driving