Electric Vehicle Adoption Modeling in France: A Systematic Literature Review

Widiawati, Karsi; Sopha, Bertha Maya; Rakoto, Naly · 2023 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1109/ieem58616.2023.10406907

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Summary

This paper addresses the challenge of modeling electric vehicle (EV) adoption in France to support the government’s goal of banning new gasoline and diesel vehicle sales by 2040. Motivated by the need to identify effective policies for this transition, the study utilizes a systematic literature review (SLR) combined with system dynamics modeling. The research aims to map the causal relationships and feedback loops among factors influencing EV demand, providing a foundation for policy intervention design. The methodology involved an SLR using the PRISMA framework to filter articles from Scopus, EBSCO, and ProQuest databases. From an initial pool of 43 articles, 20 were selected for analysis based on relevance to EV adoption in France. Bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer identified seven research clusters, including EV technology, charging infrastructure, and total cost of ownership. The core of the study involved qualitative system dynamics modeling, specifically constructing a causal loop diagram (CLD) to illustrate the interactions between identified factors. The analysis categorized influences into five direct factors (technical readiness, total cost of ownership, advertising effects, word of mouth, and environmentally friendly image) and four indirect factors (government subsidies, taxes, green energy ratio, and policy intervention). The results reveal a system characterized by seven feedback loops: four balancing (B) loops and three reinforcing (R) loops. The advertising factor exhibits a goal-seeking structure, meaning its influence stabilizes at a certain point. In contrast, word of mouth, environmentally friendly image, and total cost of ownership factors display S-shaped growth structures, driven by the interaction of balancing and reinforcing loops. For instance, word of mouth adoption is reinforced by increased contact rates between adopters and potential adopters, such as through car-sharing initiatives. Similarly, the environmentally friendly image is reinforced by a higher green charging ratio, which is linked to renewable energy generation and the use of EV batteries for stationary storage. Total cost dynamics are influenced by electricity prices, subsidies, and taxes, with small EV demand being particularly price-responsive. The significance of this study lies in its provision of a qualitative framework for policymakers to understand the complex dynamics of EV adoption in France. The findings suggest that accelerating adoption requires specific interventions: increasing public awareness for advertising effects, promoting car-sharing to enhance word-of-mouth diffusion, expanding renewable energy sources to improve the environmental image of EVs, and reducing total ownership costs through subsidies and tax exemptions. The paper concludes that while technical readiness is a strong influencer, social commitment and economic incentives are critical for long-term market penetration. Future work is proposed to extend this qualitative model into quantitative stock and flow diagrams for simulation.

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