Temporal Patterns of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran

Khorshidi, Ali; Ainy, Elaheh; Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed; Soori, Hamid · 2016 · Crossref

DOI: 10.5812/atr.27894

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Summary

This study investigates the temporal patterns of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Iran, addressing a significant gap in literature regarding how time-based factors influence accident rates. RTIs are a leading cause of mortality and disability in Iran, yet few studies have analyzed their temporal variations. The research aims to identify specific trends and concentrations of traffic accidents across different time scales to inform traffic safety programs and management initiatives. The researchers conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all road traffic accidents (RTAs) reported to the Iranian traffic police during a one-year period from March 21, 2012, to March 21, 2013. The dataset comprised 452,192 recorded accidents. Data were categorized by season, month, week, hour, and specific holiday types, including long holidays (more than one day) and the day prior to long holidays (DPLH). Accident types were classified as property damage, injury, or fatal. The study utilized Poisson regression models to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for RTIs, using weekdays as the reference category. Analyses were performed using STATA 13.1 and Excel, with statistical significance set at P < 0.05. The results indicated an overall RTA rate of 219 per 10,000 registered vehicles and 595 per 100,000 people. Approximately 28% of all RTAs and over one-third of fatal RTAs occurred during summer months, with August showing the highest fatality rate. Hourly distributions revealed peaks between 6:00–8:00 AM and 5:00–7:00 PM. The day prior to long holidays (DPLH) exhibited the highest risk, with an IRR of 1.20 for all accidents and 1.40 for fatal crashes compared to workdays. Conversely, Fridays showed the lowest frequency of accidents. Location analysis demonstrated that while the majority of accidents occurred on inner city roads, the rate of fatal accidents on outer city roads was 3.2 times higher than on inner roads. Fatal crashes on outer roads peaked during morning and evening hours. The study concludes that RTIs in Iran exhibit distinct temporal variations influenced by season, time of day, and holiday status. The significant increase in accident rates on DPLHs and during summer months highlights specific high-risk periods. Furthermore, the disparity in fatality rates between inner and outer city roads suggests different risk profiles based on location. These findings provide critical evidence for developing targeted traffic management initiatives, such as enhanced enforcement during high-risk hours and periods preceding long holidays, to effectively reduce road traffic injuries.

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Topics

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• fatality injury trends
• incidence prevalence
• comparative international
• demographic disparities

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes