Automated vehicles and sustainability when considering rebound effects.

Letmathe, P; Paegert, M · 2025 · PubMed Central

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0329193

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Summary

This study addresses the sustainability implications of automated vehicles (AVs) by accounting for potential rebound effects, specifically the increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that may offset technological benefits. While AVs are expected to improve energy efficiency, traffic flow, and safety, their deployment could induce higher travel demand due to reduced time costs and increased accessibility. The authors aim to determine the break-even points for VMT increases where the advantages of AV technology still outweigh the disadvantages, comparing privately owned AVs (PAVs) and shared AVs (SAVs) across urban and rural areas in Germany. The researchers developed a cost-based framework evaluating environmental, social, and economic impacts. The environmental pillar includes costs for vehicle manufacturing, energy supply, local particulate matter, and noise. The social pillar covers congestion and accident costs, while the economic pillar assesses time costs using the value of time (VOT). The study employs a 2x2 design focusing on two spatial types: large regional cities (urban) and small-town/village areas (rural), representing extreme poles of mobility requirements. Data inputs were derived from literature, including VOT changes from empirical studies by Zhong et al., waiting times from simulations in Germany and Switzerland, and vehicle fleet reduction estimates. Cost rates were adjusted to 2020 values using European Commission and German Environment Agency conventions. The results indicate that 34–47% of additional traffic volume could emerge without deteriorating current sustainability conditions, depending on the area and usage concept. Shared automated vehicles in rural areas emerged as the most distinct case: they offer the greatest benefits for the environment and society but are the least attractive regarding passenger time costs. This dichotomy arises because rural SAVs significantly reduce the number of vehicles needed (by approximately 90%) and lower externalities, yet passengers face higher waiting times and lower VOT reductions compared to urban or private options. The analysis highlights that while PAVs generally lead to higher VMT and fewer sustainability gains, SAVs can mitigate these effects if ride-sharing is implemented effectively. The significance of this work lies in providing a comprehensive, cost-based evaluation of AV sustainability that integrates rebound effects, a factor often overlooked in prior research. By identifying specific break-even points for VMT, the study offers practical insights for policymakers and system providers. It suggests that to maximize sustainability benefits, particularly in rural areas, strategies must mitigate the trade-off between high environmental/social gains and lower user attractiveness due to time costs. The findings underscore the importance of considering usage characteristics, such as fleet size and waiting times, alongside technological improvements when planning AV deployment.

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