Pavement Condition and Crashes

Levinson, David; Yokoo, Toshihiro; Marasteanu, Mihai · 2019 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.32866/5771

archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified

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Summary

This study investigates the relationship between pavement quality and traffic crashes, addressing the hypothesis that poor road conditions increase crash frequency by reducing drainage and skid resistance. Using data from the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) spanning 2003 to 2014, the authors combined GIS-based crash records with pavement quality metrics for state and county highways. The primary independent variable was the Ride Quality Index (RQI), a measure of pavement smoothness ranging from 0 to 5. The analysis controlled for traffic volume, truck percentage, segment length, pavement type, weather conditions, time of day, and road geometry. Negative Binomial Regression was employed to model the number of crashes by severity (fatal, injury, and property damage) on each segment annually. The results indicate that higher pavement quality is generally associated with fewer crashes, but this relationship is highly context-dependent. Good pavement quality significantly reduced fatal crashes in snowy conditions, injury crashes on wet roads and asphalt-over-concrete surfaces, and property damage crashes on crests and during Spring Load Restrictions. However, a counter-intuitive finding emerged regarding curves: good pavement quality on curves was associated with a statistically significant increase in fatal, injury, and property damage crashes compared to curves with poorer pavement. The authors suggest that poor pavement on curves may inadvertently enhance driver alertness, whereas smooth surfaces might encourage excessive speed or reduced caution. Additionally, good pavement quality in snowy conditions was linked to increased property damage crashes. Other significant findings revealed that bituminous pavement types were associated with higher injury and property damage crash rates compared to concrete, though the authors note this may reflect differences in road standards rather than direct causality. Longer road segments naturally exhibited more crashes, while a higher percentage of truck traffic correlated with fewer crashes, likely due to higher construction standards on truck-heavy routes. The relationship between traffic volume and crashes was non-linear; fatal crashes decreased with traffic up to a threshold before increasing, whereas injury crashes increased linearly with traffic. Crashes of all severities increased during rush hours, weekends, and in snowy conditions. Injury and property damage crashes also rose on grades, hillcrests, sags, and wet surfaces. Overall, injury and property damage crashes showed a decreasing trend over the study period. These findings highlight that pavement quality impacts safety differently across various environmental and geometric contexts, suggesting that road maintenance strategies must account for specific site characteristics rather than applying uniform quality standards.

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• incidence prevalence

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes