Vehicle Autonomy, Connectivity and Electric Propulsion: Consequences on Highway Expenditures, Revenues and Equity

Mwamba, Isaiah C · 2022 · ROSA P / Purdue University

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Summary

This thesis investigates the financial and equity implications of emerging vehicle technologies—specifically connectivity, automation, and electric propulsion (ECAVs)—on highway infrastructure. The research is motivated by the impending shift in travel patterns and vehicle ownership, which threatens the stability of the Highway Trust Fund. Current highway revenues rely heavily on fuel taxes, which are declining due to improved fuel efficiency and the adoption of electric vehicles. Simultaneously, the introduction of ECAVs is expected to alter vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and infrastructure wear, creating a potential mismatch between the costs incurred by the highway system and the revenues collected from users. The study aims to estimate changes in highway expenditures, revenues, and user equity across different vehicle classes as these technologies gain market penetration. The methodology employs a framework that analyzes the impacts of each technology individually and in combination. The study establishes a base case using conventional vehicle data and develops infrastructure cost functions based on FHWA statistics for all 50 states, with specific illustrative assessments conducted for Indiana. It utilizes the Bass model to forecast market penetration for connected vehicles (CVs), automated vehicles (AVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) from the 2020s through the late 2070s. The analysis distinguishes between attributable costs (load-dependent, such as pavement and bridge damage measured by Equivalent Single Axial Loads) and common costs (load-independent, such as safety assets, allocated by VMT). The study estimates changes in VMT, fuel consumption, and infrastructure requirements under various scenarios of low, moderate, and high market penetration. The findings indicate that the adoption of ECAVs will significantly increase highway expenditures while reducing revenues. CAVs are projected to increase system usage and VMT, leading to greater wear and tear on infrastructure and necessitating new investments to support connectivity and automation. Conversely, the improved fuel economy of AVs and the zero fuel consumption of EVs result in substantial declines in fuel tax revenues. This divergence creates a growing equity gap, where certain vehicle classes contribute less to revenue than their share of infrastructure costs warrants. The study demonstrates that the current user fee structure becomes increasingly inefficient and inequitable as ECAV market penetration rises. To address these challenges, the thesis proposes revisions to the highway financing mechanism. For the near term, it recommends a variable tax scheme where different vehicle classes pay distinct fuel tax rates to improve equity and efficiency during the transition. For the long term, it advocates supplementing fuel taxes with a distance-based Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) tax, particularly for electric vehicles. These recommendations aim to ensure that highway funding remains sustainable and equitable as the transportation landscape shifts toward electrified, connected, and automated mobility. The study highlights the critical need for policymakers to adapt revenue structures to reflect the changing dynamics of infrastructure usage and cost responsibility.

Key finding

The adoption of connected, automated, and electric vehicles is projected to increase highway expenditures due to higher usage and infrastructure needs while simultaneously decreasing revenues from fuel taxes, necessitating a shift toward variable tax schemes and distance-based fees to maintain equity and system efficiency.

Methodology

modeling

Provenance

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Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-10; verification: verified.

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