Analysis and forecast of road traffic accident in Saudi Arabia from 1990 until 2018

Abouammoh, Nada A.; AlRuwais, Norah A.; Abouammoh, Noura A. · 2021 · Crossref

DOI: 10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20213759

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Summary

This study investigates the epidemiology of road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2018, aiming to analyze trends in accidents, injuries, and mortalities while forecasting future rates through 2030. Motivated by the high morbidity and mortality associated with RTAs and the national strategic goals outlined in Saudi Vision 2030, the research seeks to inform policymakers on traffic safety interventions. The authors utilized secondary data from the General Authority for Statistics, stratifying data into five-year intervals. They focused on the three regions with the highest RTA counts—Eastern, Makkah, and Riyadh—calculating rates per population and per accident. Statistical analysis included Pearson correlation coefficients to determine linearity between variables and linear regression to predict future trends based on population growth. The results indicate that the Eastern, Makkah, and Riyadh regions accounted for 69% of total RTAs, 56% of injuries, and 51.39% of mortalities nationwide. While RTA numbers rose steadily from 1990 to 2014, they declined in the final four years of the study period, likely due to stricter regulations and the implementation of the Saher camera ticketing system. However, injury and mortality rates did not follow this decline uniformly. Riyadh exhibited the highest RTA rate per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2014 but had the lowest injury rate per 10,000 RTAs until 2018, when it doubled. Conversely, Makkah recorded the highest mortality rates, with 16 deaths per 1,000 RTAs. Nationally, there was a strong positive correlation between RTAs and mortalities (r=0.92) and between population and RTAs (adjusted R²=0.874), indicating that population growth is a significant predictor of accident frequency. Forecasting models predict that despite recent declines in accident frequency, the absolute numbers of RTAs, injuries, and mortalities will increase by 2030 due to population growth. The average annual increase in RTAs is projected at 3%, with injuries rising by 2% and mortalities by 2.1%. By 2030, the country is expected to see approximately 752,386 RTAs, 47,978 injuries, and 8,415 deaths annually. The study concludes that while regulatory measures have reduced the number of accidents, the severity of outcomes remains high. The authors recommend that decision-makers continue monitoring prevention strategies and investigate the reasons behind persistent high injury and mortality rates. Further research into driver behavior, accident timing, and location is suggested to address the severity of crashes rather than just their frequency.

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Topics

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• fatality injury trends
• comparative international
• incidence prevalence
• demographic disparities

Information type

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes