User interest in car sharing as an indicator of sustainable urban agglomeration development

Natalia, Kireeva; Dmitry, Zavyalov; Olga, Saginova; Nadezhda, Zavyalova; Yuri, Saginov · 2021 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202124408025

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Summary

This study investigates the relationship between user interest in car-sharing services and the sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Motivated by the environmental and economic benefits of the sharing economy—such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions, lower traffic congestion, and decreased demand for parking—the authors aim to demonstrate that sustainable urban development correlates with increased Internet user interest in sharing services. The research specifically tests two hypotheses: first, that high user interest is concentrated in urban agglomerations with high population size and density; and second, that an increase in market volume is accompanied by a rise in Internet user interest. To address these hypotheses, the researchers utilized Google Trends data, a public web application that tracks the relative popularity of search queries. Due to fragmented official statistics, this method provided a viable proxy for consumer interest. The study analyzed search queries for "car sharing" and its Russian equivalent, "karshering," originating from Russia, the United States, and Canada over a five-year period from February 2006 to February 2021. The data was normalized to a hundred-point scale to compare relative popularity across regions. The analysis focused on identifying sub-regions with the highest search frequency and examining the temporal dynamics of interest in major agglomerations, including Moscow, Vancouver, and Washington D.C. The results confirmed both hypotheses. High relative interest in car sharing was predominantly observed in densely populated urban agglomerations, such as Moscow, Toronto, and New York, where the positive effects of car sharing are most pronounced. The study found that in emerging markets like Russia, a surge in Internet queries correlated with explosive market growth; for instance, Moscow saw a pronounced upward trend in search popularity from 2017 to 2019, coinciding with an increase in active users from 15,000 to 1 million. Conversely, in established markets like Vancouver, interest remained stable, reflecting high existing awareness. The data also revealed that interest in mature markets can spike due to significant events, such as the entry of new major players, and exhibits seasonality linked to weather and travel patterns. Notably, search volumes in Moscow dropped sharply in early 2020 due to the coronavirus epidemic and subsequent service suspensions, rebounding when services reopened. The significance of this research lies in validating Google Trends as an effective tool for monitoring service market dynamics, forecasting sales, and evaluating consumer behavior related to sustainable initiatives. The findings suggest that stimulating new urban logistics services, particularly car sharing, contributes to the sustainable development and competitiveness of cities by promoting economical consumption and reducing harmful emissions. The study concludes that while interest in established markets stabilizes, growing interest in new services drives market expansion, highlighting the potential for further research into identifying urban areas with the greatest potential for sharing service development.

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