Ranking dangerous sections of the road using MCDM model
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Summary
This paper addresses the critical need for systematic traffic safety management by proposing a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model to rank dangerous road sections. Motivated by high global and regional traffic accident rates, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the study aims to identify specific hazardous locations to prioritize safety improvements. The research focuses on three road sections within the Municipality of Derventa: Kninska Street (L1), the exit toward Prnjavor/Lug (L2), and the exit toward Brod/Lužani (L3). The methodology combines two specific MCDM techniques: the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM) and the Weighted Aggregate Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS). FUCOM was used to determine the weights of seven evaluation criteria, ensuring mathematical consistency and reducing the redundancy found in other methods like AHP. The criteria included five quantitative measures—total accidents resulting in fatalities, serious injuries, slight injuries, property damage only, and Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)—and two qualitative measures—geometric road design and traffic elements (signage and pavement condition). Data were sourced from police records for the last six years and infrastructure reports. WASPAS was then applied to rank the three locations based on these weighted criteria. The results identified the total number of accidents with killed persons as the most significant criterion, with a weight coefficient of 0.292. The ranking of the road sections revealed that Location 1 (Kninska Street) was the safest alternative, followed by Location 3 (Lužani). Location 2 (Lug) was ranked as the most dangerous section. This outcome was driven by Location 2 having the highest number of accidents involving serious injuries and property damage, despite having better geometric design than the other sites. A sensitivity analysis testing various values for the WASPAS coefficient ($\lambda$) confirmed the stability of these results, showing no change in the ranking order across all tested scenarios. The study concludes that the integrated FUCOM-WASPAS model is an effective tool for objectively identifying dangerous road sections. By providing a clear hierarchy of risk, the model supports decision-makers in allocating resources for traffic safety improvements more efficiently. The findings highlight that even roads with good geometric design can be highly dangerous if accident frequencies are high, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive data analysis in traffic safety management.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | OpenAlex-citations | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| archive | success | unpaywall | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-20 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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- Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes