Identification of factors contributing to broken and buckled rails: insights from long-term data

Nezval, Vojtěch; Andrášik, Richard; Bíl, Michal · 2025 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1186/s12544-025-00725-w

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Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and contributing factors of broken and buckled rails on the Czech rail network between 2002 and 2022. The research addresses the critical safety and operational continuity issues posed by rail defects, which are influenced by thermal stress, traffic intensity, and infrastructure geometry. Motivated by the need to understand how climate change and operational factors impact rail integrity, the authors analyzed 8,155 broken rail and 455 buckled rail incidents identified from infrastructure manager records. The methodology involved extracting incident data using keyword searches and regular expressions, then linking these events with meteorological data from 241 stations and railway parameters such as traffic intensity, axle load, and line geometry. Logistic regression models were employed to evaluate the influence of explanatory variables, including daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. Hotspot analysis was conducted using the KDE+ method for sections outside stations and density calculations for stations to identify hazardous locations. Results indicate a strong seasonal and diurnal dependence on temperature. Broken rails occurred predominantly in cold months (November–March; 78.3%) and morning hours, while buckled rails peaked in summer (June–August; 83.1%) during the afternoon. Logistic regression revealed that a 1 °C decrease in minimum daily air temperature increased the odds of a broken rail by 13%, while a 1 °C increase in maximum daily air temperature raised the odds of buckling by 38%. Other significant factors for broken rails included location inside railway stations, curve geometry, higher traffic intensity, and higher axle loads. For buckled rails, curve geometry and station location were also significant predictors. The most hazardous station for broken rails was Kostomlaty nad Labem, identified by high incident density relative to track length. The findings highlight the critical role of air temperature in rail failure mechanisms, underscoring the vulnerability of rail infrastructure to climate change-induced temperature extremes. The study provides infrastructure managers with specific insights into high-risk locations and contributing factors, supporting targeted mitigation efforts. By quantifying the impact of thermal stress alongside operational variables, the research offers a basis for improving maintenance strategies and enhancing rail safety in the face of evolving climatic conditions.

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• rail grade crossings