Growth curve models in retrospective memory and prospective memory: the relationship between prediction and performance with task experience

Ng, Amanda R. J.; Bucks, Romola S.; Loft, Shayne; Woods, Steven P.; Weinborn, Michael G. · 2018 · OpenAlex-citations

DOI: 10.1080/20445911.2018.1491854

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Summary

This study investigates how metacognitive awareness—specifically meta-retrospective memory (meta-RM) and meta-prospective memory (meta-PM)—influences performance predictions as older adults gain task experience. Motivated by Toglia and Kirk’s (2000) hypothesis that individuals adjust expectations based on discrepancies between actual and expected performance, the research aims to empirically test whether acquired metacognitive awareness from earlier trials predicts subsequent performance judgments. The study focuses on community-dwelling older adults, a population susceptible to memory declines, to examine the relationship between prediction and performance in both retrospective and prospective memory tasks. The study included 178 older adults (mean age 71.56 years). Retrospective memory was assessed using a four-trial word-list learning task from the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS), where participants predicted their recall before each trial. Prospective memory was measured using a non-focal cue paradigm embedded in a word-categorization task across three blocks, with participants predicting their success rate before each block. Latent growth curve modeling analyzed trajectories of performance and predictions, while hierarchical multiple regressions tested whether metacognitive accuracy (indexed by regression residuals representing anticipatory and emergent awareness) from prior trials predicted subsequent predictions. Results indicated distinct patterns for RM and PM. For retrospective memory, both performance and predictions increased with task experience, though performance improved logarithmically while predictions followed a quadratic trajectory. Crucially, predictions lagged behind actual performance improvements. Hierarchical regressions revealed that metacognitive awareness acquired during earlier trials significantly influenced predictions for subsequent trials; specifically, anticipatory and emergent awareness from prior trials accounted for substantial variance in later predictions. In contrast, for prospective memory, neither performance nor predictions changed significantly with task experience. The study found that metacognitive awareness acquired during PM tasks also influenced how participants modified their predictions, supporting the dynamic nature of online awareness. The findings confirm that metacognitive awareness is not static but evolves with task experience, particularly in retrospective memory. The results support the theoretical framework that individuals compare ongoing performance to expectations, using discrepancies to refine future predictions. This demonstrates that emergent awareness plays a critical role in adjusting metacognitive judgments, highlighting the importance of task-specific experience in shaping memory predictions among older adults.

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• prospective memory interruptions