The effect of geography and citizen behavior on motor vehicle deaths in the United States.

Abaid, Nicole; Macinko, James; Silver, Diana; Porfiri, Maurizio · 2015 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123339

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Summary

This study investigates the factors influencing motor vehicle collision (MVC) deaths in the United States, specifically examining how driving volume, alcohol consumption, legislation, political ideology, and geographic proximity affect fatality rates. Motivated by the persistent public health burden of MVCs—which remain a leading cause of death for youth and involve alcohol in nearly one-third of fatal crashes—the authors aim to understand the complex interactions between state-level policies and outcomes. The research seeks to determine whether states with similar geographic or political characteristics exhibit similar MVC death patterns and how these factors modulate the effectiveness of safety regulations. The researchers analyzed data from all fifty U.S. states over a thirty-year period (1980–2010), utilizing the State Health Policy Research Dataset. They employed structural equation models (SEMs) to assess associations between MVC outcomes (total deaths, deaths per vehicle mile traveled, and percentage of alcohol-related deaths) and explanatory variables: vehicle miles traveled, per capita alcohol consumption, the proportion of adopted safety laws, and state political ideology. Additionally, they computed correlation functions based on geographic distance and ideological similarity to evaluate spatial and political dependencies among states. The results indicate that national MVC deaths decreased from 51,050 in 1980 to 32,788 in 2010, with alcohol-related deaths dropping from 37.0% to 18.3%. SEMs revealed significant positive associations between driving volume and total MVC deaths, though the risk per mile traveled declined over time. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with the percentage of alcohol-related deaths, while the adoption of safety laws showed significant negative associations with both alcohol-related deaths and deaths per mile traveled. Political ideology was negatively associated with MVC death rates, with more liberal states exhibiting lower rates. Crucially, the geographic analysis demonstrated that neighboring states share similar MVC death rates, alcohol consumption patterns, and legal environments. In contrast, political ideology showed little correlation among ideologically similar states, suggesting that geographic proximity is a stronger predictor of shared outcomes than political alignment. The study concludes that state-level variation in MVC deaths is driven by driving volume, alcohol consumption, and legislation, with these relationships significantly modulated by geographic proximity. The findings suggest that neighboring states emulate each other’s policies and share risk factors due to interconnected transportation infrastructure and regional policy learning. This implies that public health interventions targeting MVC fatalities should consider regional dynamics and cross-state policy diffusion, as geographic location plays a more critical role in shaping safety outcomes than political ideology alone.

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• demographic disparities
• comparative international