Cost-benefit analysis for transitioning Thailand’s passenger cars to electric drives
DOI: 10.30521/jes.1524048
archive: archived pipeline: cataloged verified
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Summary
This study addresses the financial viability of transitioning Thailand’s passenger vehicle fleet to electric drives, a critical step for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector, which accounts for over 32% of national emissions. The research focuses on comparing the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) equipped with Internal Combustion Engine (ICEV), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), and Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) powertrains. The analysis aims to provide consumers and policymakers with data-driven insights to support Thailand’s target of achieving 69% electric vehicle market share by 2035. The methodology employs a detailed TCO model incorporating purchase price, depreciation, energy costs, interest, insurance, maintenance, battery replacement, and annual taxes. The study analyzes four comparison groups of popular SUV models available in the Thai market, including direct comparisons of HEV vs. ICEV, PHEV vs. ICEV, BEV vs. ICEV, and a multi-powertrain comparison of best-selling models. Data sources include manufacturer retail prices, Thai fuel and electricity tariffs, and government incentive structures. Depreciation was calculated using the Sum-of-the-Years’ Digits method with specific salvage value assumptions for each powertrain type, while a 5% discount rate was applied to account for the time value of money over a ten-year ownership period. The findings reveal that while ICEVs have lower initial purchase prices, EVs offer significant lifecycle savings in energy and maintenance costs. HEVs consistently demonstrated a lower TCO than ICEVs throughout the ownership period, showing high cost-efficiency and low sensitivity to battery price fluctuations. BEVs achieved competitive TCO levels when supported by government subsidies, though their financial advantage was occasionally offset by high battery replacement costs in later years. A sensitivity analysis indicated that even a 60% reduction in battery costs was insufficient to make BEVs fully cost-competitive with ICEVs without additional fiscal incentives. The study highlights that high upfront costs and inadequate charging infrastructure remain primary barriers to EV adoption in Thailand. The significance of this research lies in its comprehensive assessment of the economic factors influencing vehicle choice in the Thai context. It concludes that targeted policies, including subsidies and infrastructure development, are essential to bridge the cost gap between EVs and ICEVs. The results provide a framework for consumers to make informed purchasing decisions and offer policymakers evidence to design effective incentives that promote sustainable transportation and reduce environmental impact.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | Crossref | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| archive | success | unpaywall | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-20 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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