Statistical estimation of fatal and serious injuries saved by iRAP protocols in 74 countries
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301993
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Summary
This study addresses the persistent global burden of road traffic crashes, which cause 1.19 million deaths annually, by quantifying the impact of the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) protocols. While unsafe road infrastructure is a major risk factor, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, there was a lack of rigorous statistical evaluation regarding the real-world effectiveness of iRAP’s intervention packages. The research aims to fill this gap by estimating the number of fatal and serious injuries (FSI) saved through the implementation of iRAP’s evidence-based countermeasures, providing a benchmark for future assessments and supporting global road safety initiatives like the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety. The researchers employed an observational before-and-after study design using data from 1,039 projects across 74 countries, covering 441,753 kilometers of assessed roads. The methodology relied on iRAP’s protocols, which include Crash Risk Mapping, Star Ratings, and Safer Roads Investment Plans. For projects with complete baseline and post-implementation data—specifically 134 projects in India, Mexico, and El Salvador—the study calculated the direct reduction in estimated FSI. For the remaining 905 projects lacking post-implementation data, the authors extrapolated the average FSI saving rate derived from the three countries with complete data, assuming consistent protocol adherence. This approach allowed for a global estimation of saved injuries despite heterogeneous data availability. The results indicate that the implementation of iRAP countermeasures saves approximately 159,936 FSI annually, equating to an average saving of 0.36 FSI per kilometer of assessed road. India, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines were the top beneficiaries, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the global reduction. Over the projected 20-year lifetime of these infrastructure improvements, the study estimates a cumulative saving of more than 3.2 million FSI. The annual savings are projected to peak at 159,936 in 2025 before declining as projects reach the end of their lifespan. The authors note that these figures likely underestimate the total impact, as the analysis covered less than one-third of all iRAP-star-rated roads, though they also acknowledge potential overestimation due to increased traffic volumes following infrastructure upgrades. The significance of this study lies in its provision of the first global estimates of injuries averted by an international road safety program. The findings demonstrate that iRAP protocols substantially contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal targets related to road safety. The authors conclude that expanding iRAP implementation, particularly in under-covered regions like Africa, offers a significant opportunity to save millions more lives. This evidence supports policymakers and stakeholders in prioritizing cost-effective road infrastructure upgrades to mitigate the economic and public health burdens of traffic crashes.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | Crossref | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-17 |
| archive | success | canonical_url | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-25 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-18 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-17 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-18 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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- Applied Guidance: countermeasure evaluation
- Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes