The Future Trend of E-Mobility in Terms of Battery Electric Vehicles and Their Impact on Climate Change: A Case Study Applied in Hungary
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Summary
This study investigates the potential of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within Hungary’s transportation sector, addressing the broader challenge of climate change. The transportation sector accounts for 25% of total CO2 emissions in the European Union, with small and medium passenger cars contributing 60.6% of that share. Motivated by the European Union’s long-term strategy to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality, the paper focuses on changing fuel types rather than improving vehicle efficiency. It specifically examines Hungary, where BEV adoption has grown significantly since 2016 but remains low compared to other EU members, aiming to quantify the environmental impact of this transition and forecast future trends. The methodology relies on secondary data retrieved from Statista, covering BEV registration numbers in Hungary from 2016 to 2022. The study employs Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), a time series forecasting technique, to predict the number of BEVs in 2030. To calculate CO2 emission reductions, the author utilizes data from Gimbert (2022), which provides specific emission rates in grams per kilometer (g/km) for various vehicle types: 75 g/km for BEVs, 241 g/km for gasoline, 231 g/km for diesel, 190 g/km for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), and 178 g/km for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). The SES model was optimized by calculating a smoothing constant (alpha) of 0.584 to minimize Mean Squared Error, allowing for the projection of BEV numbers and corresponding CO2 savings from 2023 to 2030. The results indicate a steady increase in BEV registrations in Hungary, rising from 405 units in 2016 to 18,800 in 2022, representing 0.4% of the total 3.8 million registered passenger cars. The SES forecast projects that the number of BEVs will reach 84,192 by 2030, an increase of 2.21% over the preceding eight years. The analysis demonstrates that BEVs are the cleanest option among the compared vehicle types, emitting 62.4% less CO2 than PHEVs. For instance, in 2022, the existing BEV fleet resulted in an average CO2 reduction of 2,538,000 g/km compared to if those vehicles were gasoline, diesel, HEVs, or PHEVs. The study further suggests that if the Hungarian Ministry of Innovation and Technology’s strategy to reduce BEV costs succeeds in increasing BEV market share by 10%, it could result in a potential average reduction of 76,957,600 g/km of CO2. The significance of this research lies in its quantification of the environmental benefits of BEV adoption in a specific national context. It concludes that increasing the number of BEVs is necessary to mitigate the negative impacts of CO2 emissions on society. The findings support the Hungarian government’s "Climate and Nature Protection Plan," particularly the pillar aimed at making electric cars affordable. By providing concrete emission reduction figures and future projections, the paper underscores the role of BEVs as a crucial component in achieving carbon neutrality and meeting European climate goals, despite the current disparity in adoption rates between Hungary and other EU nations.
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| Stage | Outcome | Tool | Model | Prompt | Attempts | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| discover | success | Crossref | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| archive | success | canonical_url | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| extract | success | cached | — | — | 2 | 2026-06-26 |
| clean | success | clean | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| chunk | success | chunk | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| embed | success | embed | Qwen/Qwen3-Embedding-8B | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| enrich | success | openalex | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| promote | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-20 |
| summarize | success | llm | qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant | summ-v5 | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
| tag | success | vector_similarity | — | — | 6 | 2026-06-20 |
| verify | success | — | — | — | 1 | 2026-06-26 |
Summary generated by qwen3.6-27b-prismaquant on 2026-06-26; verification: verified.
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