Simulating the Adoption of Electric Vehicles Under Consideration of Person-Related Variables

Senkpiel, Charlotte; Berneiser, Jessica · 2021 · Crossref

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-61503-1_53

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Summary

This study investigates the cost-optimized pathways for transforming the German energy system to meet climate protection targets by 2050. Motivated by the German federal government’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% (and up to 95%) below 1990 levels, the research addresses how to restructure the energy system across all sectors and energy carriers while ensuring security of supply. The study assumes a successful nuclear phase-out by 2022 and excludes large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS). The authors utilized the REMod-D (Renewable Energy Model – Germany), a simulation and optimization tool developed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems. The model performs time-resolved, hourly simulations to ensure energy demand is met throughout the year. It analyzes various scenarios differing in CO2 reduction targets (80%, 85%, or 90%), mobility drive concepts, building renovation rates, and the timeline for exiting coal-fired electricity generation. The optimization focuses on minimizing total system costs, including investments, financing, operation, maintenance, and fuel purchases, while adhering to annual CO2 emission limits. Key findings indicate that fluctuating renewable energy sources, primarily wind and solar photovoltaics, play a central role in future electricity supply, with installed capacity ranging from 290 GW to nearly 540 GW depending on the scenario. To manage intermittency, the study highlights the necessity for increased flexibility in generation and demand, driven by the electrification of heat supply (via electric heat pumps) and mobility. Scenarios targeting deeper emission reductions (90%) require significant expansion of synthetic energy carrier production (hydrogen, methane) and extensive building renovations. An accelerated exit from coal-fired power generation by 2040 significantly lowers transformation costs and facilitates higher emission reductions. Regarding costs, the study finds that under stable fossil fuel prices and low CO2 penalties, transforming the system costs approximately €1,100 billion more than maintaining the status quo between 2015 and 2050. However, if fossil fuel prices increase by 3% annually or if a CO2 price of €100/ton is applied, the cumulative costs of transformation become comparable to or lower than the reference scenario. Post-transformation, the annual operating costs of the new system are projected to be no greater than current system costs (€250 billion). The research concludes that a cost-effective transformation is feasible, shifting cash flows from energy imports to local investments in renewable infrastructure and efficiency measures.

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