Analysis of Passenger Car Tailpipe Emissions in Different World Regions through 2050

Senzeybek, Murat; Feinauer, Mario; Dasgupta, Isheeka; Ehrenberger, Simone · 2024 · DOAJ

DOI: 10.3390/futuretransp4020029

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Summary

This study addresses the need for differentiated, global estimates of passenger car tailpipe emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM2.5), through 2050. While Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide broad socioeconomic scenarios, they often lack the granularity to analyze specific vehicle technologies and regional market dynamics. This research aims to fill that gap by providing country-differentiated emission inventories that account for the transition from internal combustion engines to electrified drivetrains, serving as input for both climate and air quality models. The authors employed a bottom-up calculation method focusing on nine representative countries—Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, South Africa, and the USA—which collectively account for 58% of the global passenger car stock. A diffusion model based on S-curve logistic growth functions was used to project the market share development of various drivetrain technologies (including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional vehicles) based on government targets and literature. Drivetrain- and country-specific emission factors were derived using the TRAEM transport scenario model for CO2 and various regional data sources for NOx and PM2.5. These factors were weighted by the modeled stock compositions to determine fleet-average emission factors, which were then multiplied by projected transport demand (vehicle kilometers) to calculate total emissions. For non-focus countries, a cluster approach assigned them to one of nine world regions, assuming they share the emission characteristics of the representative country in that region. The results indicate that global passenger car CO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions will decrease by approximately 45%, 63%, and 54%, respectively, between 2015 and 2050. Despite this decline, gasoline remains a significant energy carrier in 2050, retaining about a 25% share of the vehicle stock. Electric vehicles are projected to lead the market, particularly after 2040, driven by aggressive electrification targets in regions like Europe and China. However, the study highlights that rising transport demand in developing regions offsets emission reductions in some areas. The analysis also notes that while exhaust PM2.5 decreases, non-exhaust sources (such as tire and brake wear) may become a larger proportion of total PM2.5 emissions as vehicle fleets electrify and gain weight due to batteries. The significance of this work lies in its provision of detailed, region-specific emission trends that capture the interplay between technological diffusion, policy targets, and transport demand. By differentiating between greenhouse gases and air pollutants, the study offers critical data for assessing both climate change mitigation and local air quality impacts. The findings underscore that while global emissions will decline, the pace and magnitude of reduction vary significantly by region, emphasizing the importance of localized policy interventions and the continued relevance of fossil fuels in certain markets despite the global shift toward electrification.

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