MODELLING MODAL SHIFT DUE TO THE ENHANCED LEVEL OF BUS SERVICE

Vedagiri, Perumal; Arasan, Venkatachalam Thamizh · 2009 · Crossref

DOI: 10.3846/1648-4142.2009.24.121-128

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Summary

This study addresses the challenge of declining bus service levels in Indian cities due to heterogeneous traffic conditions, which drives commuters toward private and para-transit modes like auto-rickshaws. The research aims to estimate the potential modal shift from auto-rickshaws to buses resulting from the implementation of exclusive bus lanes. By improving bus travel times through dedicated lanes, the authors seek to quantify how many auto-rickshaw users might switch to public transport, thereby aiding urban transport planning and demand management. The methodology combines traffic simulation with stated preference (SP) surveys. First, a validated simulation model for heterogeneous traffic flow was used to determine the reduction in bus travel time on major roads in Chennai, India, when exclusive bus lanes are introduced. The simulation indicated that bus speeds could increase by 19% to 47% compared to auto-rickshaws under typical traffic volumes. Second, a home-interview survey was conducted with 100 auto-rickshaw users in Chennai, collecting data on socio-demographic factors (gender, age), accessibility (walking time to bus stops), trip purpose, and willingness to switch modes under five hypothetical scenarios of reduced bus travel time (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% less than auto-rickshaw time). This generated 500 data points, with 80% used for calibration and 20% for validation. A binary logit model was calibrated using maximum-likelihood estimation to predict the probability of shifting from auto-rickshaws to buses. The results demonstrate that the probability of modal shift is significantly influenced by the difference in travel times between the two modes. The calibrated model showed a good fit, with a likelihood ratio index ($\rho^2$) of 0.43. As the bus travel time decreased relative to the auto-rickshaw, the probability of switching increased substantially; for instance, a 40% reduction in bus travel time resulted in a 96.35% probability of shift for all trip purposes. Sub-models based on trip purpose revealed that users traveling for "other" purposes had a higher propensity to switch (70.16% at 0% time difference) compared to those traveling for work (41.56% at 0% time difference). Additionally, gender and walking time to the bus stop were found to be significant variables, with female users and those with shorter walking distances showing higher likelihoods of switching. Models considering only travel-time difference as a variable also confirmed that time savings are the primary driver for modal shift. The significance of this study lies in providing a quantitative tool for urban planners to assess the impact of bus priority measures. The developed mode-choice probability curve allows for the estimation of aggregate modal shifts based on expected travel time improvements. The findings suggest that providing exclusive bus lanes can effectively enhance the level of service for buses, making them a more attractive alternative to auto-rickshaws. This supports the implementation of supply-side management measures to reduce congestion, pollution, and energy consumption associated with the proliferation of private and para-transit vehicles in developing countries with heterogeneous traffic conditions.

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• traffic density