Incidence of seriously injured road users in a Swedish region, 2003–2014, from the perspective of a national road safety policy

Värnild, Astrid; Belin, Matts-Åke; Larm, Peter; Tillgren, Per · 2019 · Crossref

DOI: 10.21203/rs.2.10490/v2

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Summary

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Sweden’s “Vision Zero” road safety policy in Region Västmanland between 2003 and 2014. While Vision Zero aims to eliminate fatalities and serious injuries, critics question whether its focus on car occupant safety adequately protects all road users, particularly vulnerable groups. The research addresses this gap by measuring the incidence of serious injuries across rural and urban environments, distinguishing between areas with implemented safety measures and those without. The researchers analyzed data from the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) registry and the National Road Database (NVDB). Serious injury was defined using the Injury Severity Scale (ISS > 8). The study categorized injuries by road user type (e.g., car occupants, pedestrians, cyclists), location (roads, pavements, tracks), and whether the area had been transformed by Vision Zero measures such as median barriers, speed cameras, or reduced speed limits. Incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants, and trends were analyzed using linear regression and chi-square tests to compare rural versus urban areas and transformed versus non-transformed zones. The results revealed a divergence in injury trends. In rural areas, the incidence of serious injuries slightly increased from 7.8 to 9.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. In contrast, urban incidence doubled from 8.0 to 16.3. Specifically, serious injuries among car occupants on transformed national rural roads decreased by 26.5%, whereas injuries on regional rural roads increased by 55.0%. However, unprotected road users (pedestrians and cyclists) experienced significant increases in serious injuries, particularly in urban areas. The incidence for unprotected users on pavements and cycling tracks rose by 152.5%. Most serious injuries (78.5%) occurred in areas not transformed by Vision Zero measures. In these non-transformed areas, 64% of injuries were urban, compared to 39% in transformed areas. Additionally, injured individuals in non-transformed areas were, on average, 5.45 years older than those in transformed areas. The study concludes that while Vision Zero measures successfully reduced serious injuries for car occupants on specific rural roads, they failed to prevent a doubling of serious injuries in urban areas, particularly among pedestrians and cyclists. The findings suggest that current policies are inadequate for fulfilling national safety targets, especially given the growing emphasis on active mobility and aging populations. The authors argue that more comprehensive safety interventions are required in urban environments, particularly on pavements and tracks where no specific safety measures were implemented during the study period.

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• incidence prevalence
• comparative international
• fatality injury trends

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• Empirical Findings: crash risk outcomes